What do the Atlanta Braves have in Huascar Ynoa?

Huascar Ynoa was thought by most to be a reliever long-term coming into the year but has been the best starter for the Braves early in 2021. Has he changed his long-term outlook?

I have been wanting to write about Huascar Ynoa for a few days now. I decided to wait until after he finished his night in front of the national audience on Sunday Night Baseball where the Atlanta Braves beat the Philadelphia Phillies.

It allowed me to grab a little more data, which is always good when making these evaluation posts. It also allows Ynoa to get more exposure on a national level, even though he has already made a pretty nice name for himself thanks to this moment.

A no doubt grand slam to center field will definitely bring some national attention to oneself, especially when one does it as a pitcher.

While the grand slam was an amazing moment, I want to talk about his value as a pitcher long-term. There is some interesting data and statistics on the young right hander.

Coming into 2021, most people believed Ynoa was destined to be a reliever long-term. This was not a shot at Ynoa, as most figured he could thrive as a reliever.

Maybe he would be a valuable multi-inning reliever or as an opener. Roles we are seeing more and more of in today’s game.

However, he has been given a shot to start through a variety of reasons in 2021 and he has made the most of his opportunity. Ynoa has unquestionably been the “Ace” of the staff through the first month.

However, what is his ceiling going forward? What is his floor? What is he doing well? What are some areas of his game that we would like to see improvement?

That is what I am looking for here, what exactly can Ynoa be. I would love to hear what everyone thinks as well, whether the people agree or disagree with me.

I want to look at what worries me, what I like long-term, and then make an overall evaluation and prediction for Ynoa based on where he is right now.

Hard Hit

Looking at Ynoa’s 2.23 ERA, most would think that he has done a great job of limiting hard hits. However, that is simply not true.

Take a look at some of the metrics from Ynoa’s baseball savant page:

• Hard Hit%- 11th percentile (48.5%)
• Average Exit Velocity- 20th percentile (91)
• xSLG- 23rd percentile (.465)
• Barrel%- 25th percentile (10.9%)
• xBA- 34th percentile (.257)
• xwOBA- 38th percentile (.330)

That is a lot of “blue” on the baseball savant page and a lot of worrisome metrics. When Ynoa gets hit, he is getting hit hard.

That is cause for some concern, because common sense tells me that eventually these hard-hit balls will eventually start falling at a higher rate. They also could lead to more damage against Ynoa.

More Metrics

We talked about how Ynoa is getting hit hard but somehow getting away with it. Yet, he still sports a 2.23 ERA.

However, look at his xERA, FIP, and xFIP:

• xERA: 4.34
• FIP: 3.60
• xFIP: 2.92

That is a mixed bag. Starting with the xERA, it is nearly double what Ynoa’s actual ERA is. This is due to his xwOBA (.330) is significantly higher than his wOBA (.264) which suggests that he is due for some regression. This should come as no surprised seeing the hard-hit rates in the previous section as xwOBA is calculated in part from those metrics.

xERA is not necessarily predictive, so I am by no means suggesting Ynoa’s ERA doubles anytime soon, but it does mean he is suppressing runs in a way that may not be the most sustainable.

His FIP and xFIP tell a different story, one that will get mentioned more in the next slide.

Two Pitch Mix

This is one that may not seem like a big issue, but I think could end up being a big roadblock in Ynoa’s success.

Currently Ynoa is throwing his slider 46.3% of the time and his fastball 42.2% of the time. He is throwing two pitches 88.5% of the time.

He does throw other pitches, just not as often. He throws a sinker 5.9% of the time and a changeup 5.6% of the time.

Looking at his game against the Phillies, here is the breakdown of his 92 pitches:

• Slider- 51.1% (47 pitches)
• Fastball- 42.4% (39 pitches)
• Changeup- 5.4% (5 pitches)
• Sinker- 1.1% (1 pitch)

When the slider and fastball are working like they were last night, a third pitch probably is not necessary. Ynoa certainly did not need one to get through six innings.

However, throwing only two pitches that often can lead to issues. Even though the slider is a plus plus pitch and the fastball is solid, if one pitch is not working, hitters can sit on a certain pitch like the Cubs did on April 17th.

There is some worry on his fastball though, look at these numbers:

• BA- .200
• xBA- .298
• SLG- .462
• xSLG- .576
• wOBA- .308
• xwOBA- .391
• Average Exit Velocity- 94.0

While both pitches were working well against the Phillies, Mike Petriello made a great point after Andrew McCutchen hit a leadoff home run on the first pitch of the game. He mentioned not many guys throw a first pitch slider to open the game, meaning it is probably going to be a fastball.

McCutchen had a similar thought and did not miss it.

Now this is just a case of a veteran player knowing what to look for. However, it does show what a good hitter can do when they can eliminate a pitch. If one of Ynoa’s two pitches are not working that night, it could mean trouble.

I think Ynoa would benefit from throwing a third pitch, possibly his changeup, just slightly more to keep hitters guessing. Even if he only throws it a few more times a game, around 8%-9%, it could help keep hitters off-balance.

Adding that third pitch could be exactly what Ynoa needs to take the next step to being a legitimate front-line starter.

He is Hard to Hit

While we looked at the numbers showing that Ynoa gets hit hard when he gets hit, how about the numbers that show how hard it has been to hit Ynoa this year?

• Whiff%- 65th percentile (29.4%)
• K%- 76th percentile (28.4%)
• Chase Rate- 77th percentile (30.4%)

That slider has been nasty. Opposing hitters almost have no chance when Ynoa has his A+ slider.

Check out these numbers on Ynoa’s slider:

• BA- .191
• xBA- .206
• SLG- .309
• xSLG- .349
• wOBA- .235
• xwOBA- .254
• Whiff%- 41.5%
• Average Exit Velocity- 86.2

That is an elite pitch. It helps his fastball play better than the metrics because hitters have to respect the slider. The fastball is a little flat, but 97 is tough when a batter has to respect one of the best sliders in the entire game.

FIP and xFIP Love Ynoa

I mentioned the FIP (3.60) and xFIP (2.92) in the previous section when talking about the xERA being worrisome. A 3.60 FIP is considered above average to great, while a 2.92 xFIP is excellent!

For those who may not know what FIP is, it is fielding independent pitching, so it basically removes defense from the equation and looks at a pitcher’s performance based on what they can control, such as, strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs.

A pitcher with a FIP higher than his ERA is generally considered lucky and could expect slight regression. A pitcher with a FIP lower than his ERA is usually unlucky and should turn it around in the future.

xFIP is to FIP what xERA is to ERA, it looks to give a more detailed look into what a pitcher’s FIP actually should be. In this case, Ynoa’s xFIP is actually better than his FIP, which suggests that Ynoa is pitching really well even though he is really only using two pitches.

So, while his FIP suggests the ERA should come up slightly, the xFIP suggests that it may not come up much at all. In fact, his FIP and xFIP suggests that his performance has not been a fluke.

With the Braves usual strong defense, it is possible that Ynoa can keep these numbers up if he can limit his home runs.

While Ynoa probably will not have a low 2 ERA, these numbers suggest that he may not be in for major regression at all.

He is only 22

Ynoa will turn 23 at the end of May, but I think we can all agree that he does not look like a guy in his early twenties on the mound. He pitches like a guy who has years of experience on a big-league bump.

He has yet to show any signs of losing his composure in the face of adversity. In the game against the Cubs where he gave up six runs, he could have let that affect him in his next outing. However, he would throw six strong innings and only allow two runs to the Arizona Diamondbacks in his next outing.

Even against the Phillies when McCutchen lead off with a home run on the first pitch, Ynoa did not let that bother him. Not only did he not allow another run, but he only allowed four more base runners the entire night.

He may have that “it factor,” that different mentality, that a lot of young pitchers struggle to find.

Ynoa also does not allow free baserunners, his walk rate currently sits at 5.8% which is a vast improvement from 13.0% in 2020.

Hitters have to earn everything from Ynoa. While he is allowing some harder hit balls, he does not hurt himself with free passes. When something bad does happen, he does not let it bother him and moves onto the next batter.

The mental makeup Ynoa is showing at 22 is impressive and not something that can be taught.