All I want for an Atlanta Braves Christmas is…
If the Atlanta Braves are to do this, it starts with recognizing and acting upon desperation.
No doubt: there are MLB teams that are hurting financially. Among them include the Reds, who are obviously dumping salaries in any way they can (thus, this plays strongly into the scenario Fred painted earlier).
So far, the other struggling clubs have not overtly set a “Fire Sale” sign out on the front lawn, but early signs of action are nonetheless there from Colorado:
"Colorado has already taken some cost-cutting measures to free up approximately $6 million by non-tendering three players from the 2020 team."
There are contracts that the Rockies simply can’t move — at all. Charlie Blackmon is owed $52 million more through 2022 (counting a buyout price after that season). While Blackmon isn’t terrible, he will be playing in his age 34 season with an evident production decline in progress. He’s simply not a $26 million player right now.
Their true assets are Trevor Story — a free agent after 2021 — and Arenado (with an opt-out after 2021). However, it’s Arenado, his contract, and his relationship to team ownership that’s the problem.
Let’s go back a bit.
Giancarlo Stanton received a whopping 13-year contract the Marlins in 2015 with a total guarantee of $315 million. The first 3 years of that deal paid $6.5, $9, and $14.5 million respectively before jumping up to $25 million in 2018. Even today, that contract hasn’t yet peaked: it reaches $32 million for the years 2023-25.
But Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria did this heavily-backloaded deal with an exit strategy: he sold the team before he would be responsible for paying those big numbers. In the end, Miami somehow got the Yankees to take the contract, but this discussion centers more about Loria’s role.
The Rockies’ owner is Dick Monfort — the guy who famously declared last February that his club would win 94 games in 2020. Aside from the shortened season, they went 26-34 (a 70 game pace under normal circumstances) after finishing 71-91 in 2019.
He’s also the one who reportedly insisted on including an opt-out clause in Arenado’s contract extension after the third season.
There’s only one reason he’d have done so… he wanted Arenado to exercise the opportunity to leave.
Like Loria with Stanton, Monfort doesn’t really want to pay Arenado $30+ million a year. He gave him the extension to maintain favor with the fanbase, but it appears that the plan was for Arenado to leave for greener pastures on his own accord so that he could tell the Rockies’ faithful “I’m sorry — but this was his choice to leave”.
Thus he’d avoid a public relations problem and free up capital to rebuild his club.
A funny thing happened on the way to that opt-out, though:
- COVID considerations have rocked their financial world — and that of others
- The collapsed free-agent market is going to compress salaries
- Next year’s free agents includes premium shortstops (and Kris Bryant) and will involve big money
- Not a lot of teams have a big need at third base right now
- Even fewer teams have big money to spend and this contract is clearly over-the-top
So is Arenado going to opt out? Oh, given the animosity between him and the Front Office, I’m sure he’d love to. But how many people walk away from $164 million of guaranteed money — even for noble reasons?
Thus, if Monfort had a Loria-esque plan in mind here, it’s truly blown up in his face. He’s got to come to terms with the fact that he’s seriously on the hook for this entire deal… unless he wants to make another deal.
So at this point, the PR hit is inevitable… but the pain of the financial hit is going to be much, much worse if he fails to act.