Atlanta Braves trade deadline: A different take on their inaction
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves are a most frustrating organization, making smart deals one week, then looking uninformed and inept the next.
The day before the deadline ended, Alex Anthopoulos acquired a soft-tossing lefty to – in theory – shore up the rotation. So far, he hasn’t, and I doubt he will, and shockingly, it means once again that Bowden and I agree.
". . . Adding Tommy Milone to the back of their starting rotation might help win them some games . . . However, . . . to hold on to first place, they’re going to need rookie Ian Anderson to pitch like he did in his first start, Cole Hamels to return . . .and someone like Kyle Wright or Mike Foltynewicz to step up in the heat of the pennant race . . ."
Bowden’s list contains far too many “ifs” for my blood.
Disappointing deadline deals and non-deals
In my post about the team acquiring Tommy Milone, I noted that noting in his StatCast numbers pointed to any reason for his improvement other than luck.
Here are the numbers from StatCast — updated to include his Braves outing — that led me to that conclusion.
| Year | Pitch | No. | MPH | Drop | Delta | break | Delta |
| 2018 | 4-Seamer | 245 | 86.9 | 19.1 | 6.9 | ||
| 2019 | 4-Seamer | 730 | 87.1 | 18.1 | -1 | 8.1 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 4-Seamer | 227 | 86 | 18.2 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 0.1 |
| 2018 | Changeup | 106 | 78.7 | 34.9 | 13 | ||
| 2019 | Changeup | 637 | 79.4 | 35.8 | 0.9 | 15.4 | 2.4 |
| 2020 | Changeup | 214 | 79 | 36 | 0.2 | 15.3 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | Curveball | 17 | 73.7 | 57.9 | 5.7 | ||
| 2019 | Curveball | 131 | 75.3 | 53.1 | -4.8 | 4.4 | -1.3 |
| 2020 | Curveball | 22 | 75.1 | 51.9 | -1.2 | 3.8 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | Slider | 50 | 78.3 | 45.1 | 4.1 | ||
| 2019 | Slider | 172 | 79.1 | 41.9 | -3.2 | 4.6 | 0.5 |
| 2020 | Slider | 62 | 79.4 | 37.9 | -4 | 4.4 | -0.2 |
Small increases in break appeared between 2018 and 2019, but he showed only small, statistically insignificant changes between 2019 and 2020. The most significant change occurred with his slider, which lost four inches of vertical movement.
According to the explanation of the linked StatCast page, those aren’t necessarily improvements.
"How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. (StatCast)numbers are reported with gravity. . . . gravity requires time (to act)., . . slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move. . ."
Milone credits an adjustment to his mechanics for four-seam fastball and changeup move from being his put-away pitch 13.5% and 17.5% of the time, respectively, in 2019 to 20.5% and 24.1% this year.
However, metrics indicate no change significant enough to credit fastballs and change-up being 75% more effective as out-pitches. It’s far more likely that sample-size and catching batters as they were still ramping up for the season, are the reasons Milone looked as good – if you classify it that way – as he did.
Atlanta Braves’ spin on the deal.
It’s true Milone lowered his ERA and increased his strikeouts in his first six starts. It’s also true that he gave six homers in six games – he had one homer-free game but gave up two in another game. His 3.99 ERA with Baltimore came with a 1.26 WHIP, 27.9% line drive rate, and opposing players batting .273/.305/.471/.776.
Milone and Josh Tomlin are the same type pitcher. Both need to locate their pitches precisely to keep batters off-balance, and Tomlin is much better at it than Milone.
I’ve heard several former pitchers and writers say Milone gets a little bit of slack because of the way the Braves rushed him to Philadelphia for the game. I agree that made things harder, but it didn’t cause his quick exit. The Phillies lineup is strong, and soft-tossing pitchers can’t make mistakes; Milone made way too many mistakes.