Atlanta Braves Need Consistency from Mike Foltynewicz in 2020
To determine how he can accomplish this and what we can expect from him in this unusual upcoming season, let’s first take a dive into what went wrong for Foltynewciz last season.
Let’s be honest. There is a lot to unpack as it relates to Foltynewciz’s 2019 season.
The season’s heavy lifting included a rehab stint in Gwinnett to start the season, a demotion to the minors following a poor performance in Atlanta, a resurgence of epic proportions in the second half, a stellar post-season start, and, of course, a not-so-stellar post-season start.
Before we can truly analyze the discrepancies of his erratic campaign, let’s take a snapshot of his full-season comparisons over the past two seasons (stats provided by FanGraphs) to gain a better understanding of what we’re dealing with here.
2018: 31 starts, 183 IP, 13-10, 2.85 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
2019: 21 starts, 117 IP, 8-6, 4.54 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
In 2018, Foltynewciz was a man on a mission. He was reliable, dominate, and, more so than anything else, unmistakably matured on the mound. In nearly half of his starts that season, he lasted at least six innings. Implementing his slider at a much more consistent rate to offset his powerful fastball, Foltynewciz registered a 27.2 percent strikeout rate to go along with a 3.39 FIP and a .251 BABIP.
In 2019, most everything went south from a statistical standpoint. His strikeout percentage dropped to 21.49 percent (and his strikeouts per nine innings decreased to 8.08), his FIP ballooned to 4.97 and his BABIP jettisoned to .265.
Major League hitters were squaring him up at a much higher rate as well, with his line drive percentages (18.5 percent in 2018 to 23.1 percent in 2019) and hard hit percentages (35.1 percent to 40.3 percent) soaring. His ground ball rate also dived from 43.1 percent to 36.7 percent.
So, what was the difference?
His slider, for most of the season, just wasn’t as efficient. When Foltynewciz commands his slider, he has the makeup of a top-of-the-rotation starter. When the slider sits on the shelf, Major League hitters rarely miss.
In 2019, Foltynewciz’s velocity was also down across the board compared to 2018. His four-seam fastball decreased from 96.8 mph to 94.9 mph on average and his slider dipped from 87.2 mph to 85.5 mph. He was giving up more contact and less swings and misses than in his previous career-year.
What was the cause? Was it the elbow issues? As previously mentioned, his right arm flared up in spring training, forcing him to start the season rehabbing at Gwinnett.
When he returned to Atlanta, he was a shell of his former self, recording a 6.37 ERA in 11 starts (53.1 innings). He surrendered 16 home runs during that stretch, and was eventually optioned back down to Gwinnett.
As his progression goes, Folty was naturally much better in the minors, allowing just 10 earned runs and 27 hits in 33.2 innings, striking out 31 batters, while walking only eight and allowing only one home run.
When he was recalled by the Braves on August 5, he was reinvented. Atlanta won nine of Foltynewciz’s ten starts, and he allowed three runs only once during that stretch. He was 4-1 in September, had the impressive start against the Cardinals in game two of the NLCS, and, as discussed ad nauseam, simply fell apart in his final start of the year.