Atlanta Braves: how 15 years of veteran 5th starters have fared

There might be some guidance in how Felix Hernandez fares as we look at the history of pitchers the Atlanta Braves have signed to similar roles.

The fifth starter. It’s a spot in the rotation that teams would normally like to fill with an up-and-coming prospect, but some clubs – like the Atlanta Braves – have historically had some difficulty in executing that plan.

This can happen for a number of reasons:

• There’s no pitcher ready to step into that role
• There’s a concern about innings load
• The team can’t risk that slot to a rookie when they are supposed to be a contender
• Injuries hurt the rotation depth

As such, the Atlanta Braves have routinely signed a lower-cost veteran to come in and be a competitor for the back of their rotation for the purpose of simply being an ‘innings eater’ – someone who can be relied upon to stabilize the position with the hope that the club can win around him.

While such veterans will occasionally go out and have a brilliant game here and again, it isn’t a big priority that they do so with any kind of regularity. In fact, an ERA in the 4’s is often a good-enough goal for these players.

With the arrival of Felix Hernandez on such a contract (a minor league deal), let’s take a walk through the history of such pitchers through the past 15 seasons and see how that has worked out for the Braves.

The criteria for selecting these players is at least 2 or 3 of the following:

• signed to a minor league deal
• signed as a starter
• aging veteran with past record of success elsewhere
• acquired after the beginning of spring training
• acquired after an event that created a need

There’s likely a few left out since there were several whose names were difficult to locate after they failed to make the club out of Spring… or they were omitted for categorical reasons.

So for example: Jaime Garcia did not make the list, as he was acquired via trade in December 2016 – intended to be a better-than-5th-starter.  Likewise for Bartolo Colon, who was signed a month before Garcia.

Scott Linebrink?  He was a reliever: in 607 career appearances, he started just 6 times – none for the Braves (2011).

Below is the list researched in the following pages (in no particular order).  Despite the omissions, you might be surprised at just how many pitchers we’re talking about here:

• Aaron Harang
• Javier Vazquez
• Ervin Santana
• Jorge Sosa
• Chad Durbin
• Livan Hernandez
• Bud Norris
• Anibal Sanchez
• Josh Tomlin
• Eric Stults
• John Danks
• Trevor Cahill
• Jorge Campillo
• Wandy Rodriguez
• Rodrigo Lopez
• Chien-Ming Wang
• Jose Veras
• Buddy Carlyle
• Alexi Ogando
• Ben Sheets

Let’s take a look at the results:

Dice Rolls that Paid Off

Aaron Harang

• ACQUIRED:  March 24, 2014.
• AGE:  Closing in on 36

Harang was perhaps best known as a member of the Cincinnati Reds (2003-2010), but continued to bounce around through 2015.

He had a career mark of 128-143 for 8 different teams over parts of 14 seasons.  While he was a workhorse for Cincy (over 670 innings from 2005-07), he had ebbs and flows of both innings and results after that.

Harang became available as the Indians released him that Spring – allowing him to catch on with another club… that being the Braves, who were still reeling from the news that came on consecutive days a couple of weeks earlier:  Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both lost their UCL’s, requiring Tommy John surgery and effectively starting the end of their respective (and very promising) careers.

Harang did his part to perfection:  33 starts, 204 innings and a 3.57 ERA.  He record was 12-12, but given his status as an ’emergency’ starter for the whole season… that was remarkable.

Honestly?  Cleveland went with their ‘kids’… and Harang could have helped them a bit.

Javier Vazquez

• ACQUIRED:  December 2nd or 3rd, 2008 (White Sox trade)
• AGE:  Turned 32 mid-season

This wasn’t a ‘standard’ case of acquiring a 5th starter during Spring like the others, but Vazquez fits in this group because of the circumstances… namely losing Tim Hudson to a UCL injury and having to replace that presence on the roster.

Bleacher Report pointed out that there were other reasons to need him, too:  Mike Hampton became an Astro and John Smoltz might have left the Atlanta Braves that off-season as well (he did not).

The trade was no small thing:  Vazquez and Boone Logan were obtained for Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, Santos Rodriguez, and a catcher named Tyler Flowers.

Vazquez had the reputation of a pitcher with unrealized potential:  lots of innings, lots of strikeout ‘stuff’, but results that belied those skills.

But in 2008, he put it all together.

• 219 innings
• 15-10 record over 32 starts
• 3 complete games
• 2.87 ERA

This was the only time in his career in which he held opponents under 3.24 runs per game… and he beat that by a lot.

After the season, Vazquez was traded again:  under the headline “New York Yankees Steal Javier Vazquez from the Braves”, Bleacher Report described the deal as yet ‘more reasons to hate the … Yankees’.

Boone Logan was involved again:  going to New York in exchange for Melky Cabrera, reliever Mike Dunn, and a barely 19-year-old pitcher named Arodys Vizcaino.

Vazquez started 26 games in New York and had a 5.32 ERA after throwing 157 innings.

Somehow I don’t think Bleacher Report had that one right at all.

Emergency Successes

Ervin Santana

• ACQUIRED:  March 12, 2014
• AGE:  31

“Smell Baseball”. Ervin Santana was signed by the Braves because the Braves were suddenly desperate for starting pitching in the wake of the aforementioned injuries to Medlen and Beachy.

Santana was still lingering on the market due to his price and the weight of a Qualifying Offer.  By the reckoning of Wikipedia, Atlanta still effectively stole him from the Blue Jays, who apparently had a verbal agreement with him that he obviously didn’t really want to sign.

Then again, at $14.1 million… one wonders who stole what?

Santana filled his role via 196 innings in 31 starts, though with a 3.95 ERA.  In truth, the Braves couldn’t complain:  that was in line with his career mark of 4.09 and it helped get the team through a difficult season (and if you believe in FIP… his was a near-career-best 3.39).

Atlanta nonetheless declined the chance to re-sign Santana and he accepted a multi-year offer from the Twins, a pact that ended after 2018 (while being hurt for almost all of that last season) after strong years in 2016-17.

Of note:  while I won’t devote an entire section to Gavin Floyd, he was another starter brought in for this tumultuous/tortuous 2014 season, though he signed during the prior December and thus isn’t really in the same category of ‘extra’ starters.

Floyd was doing well — very well in fact (2.65 ERA) until his over-wired arm popped the Olacranon off the rest of his elbow… *sigh*… all part of a 79-83 season.

Jorge Sosa

• ACQUIRED:  March 31, 2005.
• AGE:  nearly 28

Lightning in a bottle:  Jorge Sosa was a bit different from most of these pitchers, being obtained in trade that sent Nick Green to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Sosa had a heckuva 2005 season.  In 20 starts (44 game appearances), he threw 134 innings and had a 13-3 record with a remarkable 2.55 ERA… roughly half of his career ERA to that point (his 4th season) and exceeding all of his prior pitching Wins.

Of all the late-arriving pitchers in this group, his acquisition probably had the best impact on the Atlanta Braves of anyone.

Alas, as the Braves re-signed him that next offseason for $2.2m to see if 2005 was ‘real’… he reverted to prior form.

After 118 innings and a 5.42 ERA in 2006, Sosa was released, never throwing for anything under 4.40 in any season afterwards.

ODD TRIVIA:  confounding his pitching struggles, that year, Sosa was equally bizarre with the bat:   3 for 24… all hits were solo homers. 11K, 2BB.  Just about as close to a ‘3 true outcome’ guy as a pitcher may ever be.

He tied for 2nd in the majors for pitcher homers that season, and the stat line produced another oddity:  .125 hitting average and .000 BABIP… since homers don’t count!

Remarkable Rejuvenation

Chad Durbin

• ACQUIRED:  April 3, 2012 (major league deal)
• AGE:  34

Chad Durbin was inked after his opt out with the Nationals was exercised as teams were heading north for the regular season.  He’s on this list mostly because of that, but as a pitcher who started 75 games in his career, he could have been called upon to start in a pinch.

In this case, Durbin ended up giving the Braves an extra option out of the bullpen for middle relief.

He was generally successful in this role – and reliable.  Over 76 appearances, he posted a 3.10 ERA in 61.0 innings, finishing 19 games and saving 1 on his way to a 4-1 record.

Once again, here’s a case in which a veteran pitcher showed up in Atlanta and had an improved year:  Durbin’s 3.10 ERA was only beaten over his career by a 2.87 mark in 2008 with Philadelphia.

It was also sandwich by 5.53 and 9.00 ERA’s in 2011 and 2013… the latter marking the end of a 14 season career.

Jorge Campillo

• ACQUIRED:
• AGE:  29

Campillo doesn’t quite match the standard for this group in that he was signed by the Braves well before Spring Training (December 17 of 2007).

However, he did receive a minor league deal and ended up earning his way onto a club that needed a boost in the rotation behind stalwarts Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens.

Mike Hampton, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton were also among that year’s starters, but none of them managed over 113 innings.

Campillo was called up in mid-April as a reliever, but five weeks later was elevated to a starter’s role.  He ended up getting 25 starts and almost 159 innings in 2008, throwing to a 3.91 ERA and 1.235 WHIP with an 8-7 record… third best on the club, and easily the best of his few seasons in the majors.

This 2008 stint was the second time he was in the Braves organization, having been originally signed as an International free agent at the age of 17 – though Atlanta released him late that same year.

So-So Results… but then a great one

Livan Hernandez

• ACQUIRED:  March 30, 2012
• AGE:  37

Hernandez is on this list because he’s the type of player who I’m attempting to profile here (a veteran starter brought in during/late in Spring Training), though he ended up not being a starter for the Atlanta Braves.

This happened during Hernandez’ 17th and final major league season, but after 474 career starters, the Braves (and later Milwaukee) only used him in relief – for 18 games.

The results were mixed, to be sure:  a 4.94 ERA, 1 save (the only save in his career), and a 1.548 WHIP.  He was released on June 19 after 18 appearances and 31 innings.

Notably – given the experience the Braves might soon find with their newest pitcher named Hernandez this season – Livan had a lot of mileage on his arm:  3122 innings before that season began.  There just wasn’t much left in his considerable tank by that point.

Of note: Wikipedia records that late in 2011, Livan Hernandez threw his 50,000 MLB pitch (thrown to Jair Jurrjens, oddly enough).  Felix Hernandex is now at 42,134:  12th most for all pitchers since 2000.

And no… I’m not mentioning THAT game in his history against the Braves.

Bud Norris

• ACQUIRED:  November 25, 2015
• AGE:  30

Norris was acquired early in the offseason as a starter, but things didn’t go that well in 2016 thanks to a 1-4 record and ugly ERA of 8.74.

He was moved to the bullpen, and that did produce useful results (1.32 ERA).  He made one more start on June 4th:  5 innings with a single run allowed.

The Braves traded Norris to the Dodgers for the balance of the 2016 season on June 30th in a deal that brought Caleb Dirks and Philip Pfeifer to the Braves.

Anibal Sanchez

• ACQUIRED:  signed to minor league contract on March 16, 2018.
• AGE: 34

Anibal Sanchez is the quintessential member of this list… brought in at the end of spring training, minor league deal, intended to eat innings at the back of the rotation – if he made the team at all.

He delivered big-time.

Sanchez had enjoyed a huge season as a starter in 2013 for Detroit, finishing 4th in the Cy Young balloting that year thanks to a 2.57 ERA, which led the league among qualifying pitchers.

Unfortunately for him, he was on the same team as Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90), who won the award that year.

For the Braves in 2018, though, he had his second best season over a lengthy career, posting a 2.83 ERA in 136.2 innings over 24 starts.

His record was just 7-6 despite having the best ERA on the staff (Folty/Teheran/Newcomb/McCarthy, and late Gausman), but he was teaching when he wasn’t pitching and that clearly helped out the ‘kids’ – and even Teheran.

Of that group of starters, only Brandon McCarthy had an ERA above 4.00.  The rest seemed to take significant steps forward as the Braves won the division to the surprise of many.

Helpful Resource

Josh Tomlin

• ACQUIRED:  minor league signing, March 21, 2019
• AGE:  34

Josh Tomlin was 2019’s break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starter.  As such he only started once for the Braves, but did perform admirably out of the bullpen when Atlanta really needed a boost.

Overall, he made 51 appearances, 50 as a reliever totaling 79.1 innings.  His WHIP was a solid 1.122.  He pitched to contact, but clearly made that effective.

Wikipedia notes that Tomlin’s 0.79 BB/9 rate ranked lowest in major league baseball among all pitchers with 30+ innings, and his 3.74 ERA was the lowest he’d seen in a season since a shortened 66 inning season with Cleveland in 2015… and his lowest ever otherwise.

It is curious how often that “lowest since ____” trend been happening with pitchers the Braves have picked up off the scrap heaps… regardless of who the current pitching coach happens to be… though in this particular case, some off-season work at Driveline may have helped.

Eric Stults

• ACQUIRED: signed to minor league deal on January 29, 2015
• AGE:  35

Okay, so that ‘trend’ isn’t universal.  While Eric Stults made the opening day roster, his tenure with the Braves as that 5th starter didn’t go particularly well.

Stults started 8 games (9 appearances total) and had a 5.85 ERA over 47.2 innings.

He was homer-prone, giving dingers up at the rate of nearly 2 per game while striking out virtually no one (6 per game rate).

Stuls did have 2 good starts:  1 earned run over 6 innings vs. the Mets and then a 2 ER game vs. Washington 5 days later (6.1 innings).  Beyond that, though, he was yielding runs in bunches:  6, 5, 5, and 7 in his remaining starts.

Oddly enough, in the last game priorwith Atlanta, Stults finished up an 8-0 loss to the Dodgers by throwing the final 3.2 innings… giving up only a single 1 against no walks.

That lowered his ERA for the year by half a run… and earned him a trade to those same Dodgers on May 27th.  However, LA immediately DFA’d him to the minors… his career ended after that season without returning to the majors.

Could have been better

John Danks

• ACQUIRED:  December 2016
• AGE:  32

Yet another former White Sox pitcher, John Danks was signed by the Braves to a minor league deal during December 2016.  The Sox had DFA’d him after only 22 innings in 2016 and a 7.25 ERA.

His intended role for Atlanta may never actually be known, though his career consisted of 247 game appearances – all in a starting role.

However, he didn’t quite get there as a Brave, being released on March 20, 2017 after a Spring consisting of 9.2 recorded innings with 5 appearances and a 6.52 ERA.

Of note, the appearances were not starts, and therefore he posted that ERA against – probably – a lot of minor league hitters.  A WHIP of 2.07 didn’t help, either.

Wandy Rodriguez

• ACQUIRED:  Jan 13, 2015, minor league deal
• AGE:  36

Wandy Rodriguez made himself a nice career as an Astro, posting ERA’s in the 3’s for five straight seasons wrapped around 2010.  But 2015 was to be his last campaign.

He started out by trying to latch on with the Phillies, but failed their physical.  Despite that, the Braves picked him up almost immediately afterwards.

What follows isn’t clear.  Rodriguez made 6 starts for Atlanta in the Grapefruit League, starting off very well.

He slipped a bit in his last couple of starts (finishing with a 3.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but it appears that there was something the Braves were concerned about, for he was abruptly released just as the season was about to start.

ESPN got a quote, but it didn’t really clear up the reasoning:

“It was really tough. He pitched really well,” manager Fredi Gonzalez said.

The beneficiary?  Trevor Cahill, who we’ll meet next.

Rodriguez latched on with the Rangers and made 15 starts for them (4.90 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 86 innings).  Maybe the Braves were right?  Read on…

A Frustrating Career

Chien-Ming Wang

• ACQUIRED:  After the 2014 season
• AGE:  34

This is actually a sad tale, for Wang clearly showed considerable talent in his early years with the Yankees, but a severe foot injury suffered while running the bases in 2008 may have completely derailed his career.

Wang tried to come back in 2009, but with poor results, then didn’t throw at all in 2010.  The Yankees let him go, and that started a sequence of attempts to catch on with another team to see if he could recapture that former skill.

The Braves were roughly the sixth or seventh team to get Wang a look-see by the time the 2015 season was starting to come around, but it didn’t work for him there, either.

11 innings that Spring (4.76 ERA, 2.03 WHIP) earned him an assignment to Gwinnett, but it didn’t really get any better at AAA.

Wikipedia notes:

In 10 starts and one relief appearance, Wang had a 2-6 record with an ERA of 6.10, while surrendering the most hits in Triple-A up to the month of June. He was released on June 19.

Wang did actually manage to return to the majors with the Royals in 2016, throwing 53 innings with a 6-0 record as a reliever (24 appearances).  His 4.22 ERA and 1.46 WHIP were not stats to shout from the rooftops, but Wang did – finally – get a reward for his persistence before hanging up the glove for good.

Jose Veras

• ACQUIRED:  February 10, 2015; minor league deal
• AGE: 34

Jose Veras probably doesn’t fit on this list, since he was a career relief pitcher, but he does fit 3 of the criteria (veteran, late arrival, minor league deal), so it was easier to talk about him than to take his name off the list… turns out there wasn’t much to tell.

Veras didn’t end up getting a long look with Atlanta.  After just 5.1 recorded innings (in six appearances with an 11.81 ERA, 2.81 WHIP), he was released just 7-1/2 weeks after being signed.

Keep that Passport up to date

Buddy Carlyle

• ACQUIRED:  December 14, 2006
• AGE:  29

Buddy Carlyle had career route that might have been designed by a malfunctioning Garmin unit.

Drafted by the Reds (1996), he debuted in the majors with the Padres (1998) before going to Japan (2001), then back state-side with the Royals (2003, AA/AAA), Yankees (2004, AA/AAA), Dodgers (2005, MLB… briefly), Marlins (early 2006).

Then the Marlins sold him to a Korean team.  Hope he kept up with the frequent flyer miles.

Atlanta gave Carlyle a real shot, though:  on a minor league deal, he started in the minors, but proved his worth after posting a 2.59 ERA over 48 innings.

The Braves promoted him, and he ended up finishing the 2007 season with 107 major league innings (career high) with 20 starts among 22 appearances.  His ERA was high – 5.21 – but he did enough to be invited back for 2008 and 2009.

That year, Carlyle had an immaculate inning on July 6th… 3 batters, 3 strikeouts, 9 pitches.

2008 saw Carlyle in the bullpen for 45 appearances and 62.2 innings (3.59 ERA).  In 2009, he split close to 40 innings between Atlanta and Gwinnett (great results at AAA; not so much in AA).

Carlyle and the Braves parted ways after the 2009 campaign, re-upping in 2012 for a AAA-only season:  76 innings, 3.43 ERA as a reliever.  His career finished up with the Mets in 2014-15.

Alexi Ogando

• ACQUIRED:  December 2015, minor league contract
• AGE: 32

Alexi Ogando enjoyed some very good years with the Texas Rangers, both as a starter and reliever.

By the time he hooked up with Atlanta for the 2016 season, he role was really ‘relief only’, though there was still that back-of-the-mind thought that he might be able to start in a pinch.

His Spring stints were promising:  3.52 ERA in 8 appearances of nearly an inning apiece, though a 1.43 WHIP was troubling.

Nonetheless, his contract was purchased for the regular season and he went North with the club to Atlanta… to start his high wire act.

Ogando’s Atlanta ERA was 3.94.  That doesn’t tell the whole story.  His 1.72 WHIP comes a lot closer to doing so.

In short, Ogando tended to strand a lot of base runners.  In 36 outings, there were 4 times in which he didn’t allow at least 1 hit or 1 walk… and two of those happened when facing only 1 batter.

That happens a lot when your hit rate is 18 per game and your walk rate is 6.5 per game.

Ogando was DFA’d on June 27 and subsequently released.

One Final Hurrah

Ben Sheets

• ACQUIRED:  minor league contract signed July 1, 2012
• AGE:  2 weeks prior to 32nd birthday

Another pitcher that may not really belong on this list, but it’s a nice story.

Sheets made a nice career for himself as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Even in his last full season with them (2008), he was an All-Star and carried a 3.09 ERA in 198 innings for the year as a 29-year-old.

But he had a reputation as an oft-injured pitcher, and once he became a free agent, teams were reluctant to take both his risk and the loss of a draft pick.

As it happens, the fears were well founded:  Sheets also needed a flexor tendon repair, and he didn’t throw in the 2009 season as a result.

Oakland took a flyer on the All-Star in 2010, but re-injured that tendon at mid-season and was done in Oakland… and maybe permanently.

One more try.  Both Atlanta and the Louisiana native were willing to give it shot, so when Sheets thought he was fully ready to go, Atlanta gave his the minor league deal.

It didn’t take long for him to be declared ‘ready’:  11 days after his first rehab start, the Braves called Sheets up and installed him as the starter against the Mets.  It was a 6-inning shutdown performance, yielding only 2 hits with 5K as the Braves and Sheets won.

That wasn’t all:  it wasn’t until his 3rd start that Sheets gave up any runs:  a lone tally against Philly on July 27th… bringing him to a magical 3-0 start.

From that point, Sheets faded to a final 2012 ERA of 3.47 and a 4-4 record.  He was hurt again by late August – this time his throwing shoulder.  But he did manage one more comeback.

Ben Sheets’ last game consisted of a single inning against Pittsburgh on October 3rd.  It was a 12 pitch 1-2-3 affair in which he effectively was the ‘opener’ for Atlanta… striking out 2 Pirates in the process.

An excellent finish… and illustrative of the manner in which many of these veterans compete – even at the back end of rotations late in their careers.

So What Do We Have Here?

A hodgepodge of veterans who are trying to bounce back from whatever adversity befell them.

Felix Hernandez is not the same as the rest of these, but there are some lessons that should be a guide to how he might do in a Braves uniform:

• He’s not coming back from a specific injury, so that bodes well.
• However, his prior velocity is gone… roughly 95 mph through 2011 down to barely 90 mph in 2019.  He therefore needs to pitch with finesse and location. That’s proven difficult since about 2017.
• In general, it appears that the ‘stuff’ pitchers have done well in comebacks… though even those who have performed well for Atlanta saw fleeting success.

Hernandez has had more time off (than he’d prefer) since 2016.  He needed that after a slew of innings in 2006-2015.  If that helps his arm, then there’s hope for him.

The suspicion here is that the Braves can afford to wait to find out what he can do:  if he gets through the Spring without too much trouble, he’ll have a chance to prove his worth at Gwinnett and then be one of the ‘hot fix’ starters available in case of need.

That said, Hernandez likely has an opt-out date – an escape clause he could exercise in case he is ‘ready’ even though the Atlanta Braves aren’t.

So even if he does reach the majors as a Brave, don’t expect a 2010 version of the King… but something close to Aaron Harang would still be useful if needed.