Atlanta Braves: Max Fried projected to lead starting staff in 2020

Intriguing 2020 Projections

It struck me when I was looking at Braves pitcher projections that Fried is supposed to make a minor improvement in the next season. Steamer projects him to have a 3.2 WAR, a .2 increase from before.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at this projection is that it is due in part to the increase in innings that he will likely have. He was limited in innings, but is fully expected to take on a larger load this upcoming year with the loss of the two free agents I mentioned earlier.

Nonetheless, at first glance, that projection is not very striking.  A 0.2 increase is minor if anything. But the most shocking thing about this is this number compared to Soroka’s projection.

Soroka is projected to have a 3.0 WAR, a 1.0 WAR drop from his performance in 2019. For someone that is considered the team’s best starter, this would be quite a regression.

In looking at the numbers, it seems that this regression comes on a better opponent BABIP and BA. Opponents are said to get better balls batted into play on Soroka than Fried.

Fried pushing above Soroka would be a shock to many. Sure: this would not mean he is becoming one of the best pitchers in the league in the course of an offseason, but if you are looking solely at the Braves rotation, this is huge.

If he were to perform better than Soroka, he could very much take over as the Braves staff leader.  With the help of a possibly improved four seamer, he could go far beyond projections.  The upside is still there.

Fried has the talent, pitch variation and movement, and ability to be a top pitcher in the league, and ultimately the best Braves starter. The question here is just in whether or not he can begin to unleash that ability in the coming season.