Atlanta Braves: What version of Johan Camargo will we get in 2020?
By Steven Teal
How good will he be?
Alright, so with those polar opposite seasons, how do you begin to project what Johan Camargo will do in 2020?
Well, my gut says to trust his 2017 and 2018 numbers over what happened last season. Although, I understand any hesitation to do so. That’s the nature of baseball though. You never know what will happen.
I’m going to go with my gut and project that Camargo will have a .265/.340/.448 slash line with an .820 OPS,15-plus home runs, and 68 RBI.
He will win the job at third base because I think his bat will play a little better than Austin Riley (I’ll be fine if I’m wrong about that).
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Riley showed the ability to play well in the outfield and could fit better there. Camargo didn’t have the best luck playing left field. Enough about what I think, let’s see what FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have to say about his projections.
FanGraphs (Steamer projection) has Camargo with a .269/.326/.439 line with a 1.2 fWAR and .765 OPS. They also believe he will have 11 home runs with 46 RBI.
Now, I think that’s a fair projection but I think Johan has a chance to be a 2.0 fWAR or better third baseman in 2020.
Baseball-Reference has a similar outlook with a line of .264/.327/.446 and a .773 OPS with 13 home runs and 50 RBI. Those are pretty fair numbers for Camargo and gives a positive outlook on the 2020 season whether Johan starts or not.
It seems FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference believe Camargo will be more of a platoon situation based on the low home run and RBI numbers. I think the eye test can confirm that Johan is a better player than that.
Johan is a solid defensive third baseman and that’s always been his strength. I wouldn’t expect him to make as many errors this year as he did in 2019. I believe we will see a much more disciplined Camargo that could potentially lead to a Gold Glove season.
Count that as one of my way too early predictions for 2020. If it happens, great, if not, you can all let me hear how wrong I was.
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The Atlanta Braves are lucky to have a guy like Camargo who has a lot of upside and can be a huge asset to this team. He will fight for his opportunity to man third base for the Braves in 2020 and I’m excited to see what he can do this year.
What do you think? Will we see the Johan Camargo of 2018 or will the Braves swing a last-minute trade for someone like Kris Bryant? Only time will tell. I believe the former is more likely.