Measuring up: which big bat are the Atlanta Braves most likely to get?

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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 15: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates with Nicholas Castellanos. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

The Big Boys are Up First

As it happens, the alphabetical order of events puts the two highest profile players at the top:

NOLAN ARENADO

CONTROL: 4
SALARY: 4
DESIRABILITY: 2
AGE: 4
COST: 2
PERFORMANCE: 3
MISCELLANEOUS: 4
TOTAL POINTS: 23

Arenado is given Control points based on the assumption of a 2 year opt out that he might be willing to exercise. The basis on which teams are – or may be – negotiating with Colorado is that benchmark, even though it’s likely the all of them would want to talk him out of this clause.

His salary is a deterrent to the Braves, to be sure, but it’s also a motivation for the Rockies to move him, and thus it’s a battle between those conflicting aspects that produces the ‘4’ score.

Cost to obtain: would be right at the highest of anyone on the chart.

Miscellaneous: this has to do with the difficulty of making such a commitment to any player in terms of the years and salary Arenado commands. Yet he’s still a superstar, and those players are rarely available.

KRIS BRYANT

CONTROL: 4
SALARY: 6
DESIRABILITY: 3
AGE: 3
COST: 2
PERFORMANCE: 3
MISCELLANEOUS: 5
TOTAL POINTS: 28

This analysis assumes that Bryant has 2 years of control remaining. His salary is much better than Arenado’s, but the Cubs are entertaining this idea because they want to dump salary in general.

Bryant’s been a clutch hitter – and a good one… perhaps better than Arenado, although his defense is poor enough that the idea of putting him in left field has been raised.

The Miscellaneous points are a compromise between the Cubs’ apparent need to trade him vs. the fact that they seem to want just as much for him as the Rockies want for Arenado. In the end: I think he gets dealt somewhere… for less than Chicago fans expect.

NICK CASTELLANOS

CONTROL: 4
SALARY: 6
DESIRABILITY: 6
AGE: 3
COST: 8
PERFORMANCE: 4
MISCELLANEOUS: 7
TOTAL POINTS: 38

If Castellanos was truly ‘all that’, he’d already have a contract. However, he’d be more desirable if he was willing to take fewer years on a deal – and in the case of the Atlanta Braves, the idea of committing to an outfielder who is all bat and no glove is difficult… but especially so if he wants 4-5 years.

He’s still young and his bat is very good, but it’s hard to guess whether his 2019 outburst was real or whether it came from leaving the Tigers.

Still: he’s readily available (he has no burden of a Qualifying Offer on him) and his suitors have been tentative at best, which impacts his Miscellaneous score positively.

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