How the Atlanta Braves lost out on Josh Donaldson. Probably.

Good Enough – Until it Wasn’t

As for point #2, you’d have to think that Atlanta did believe they would ultimately win the player: at that point, it’s likely that the Twins were behind… maybe in geography if not actual dollars.

But then this 5th year option appeared.

Earlier in the process, I had suggested that an extra “wink/wink” option clause would be a way for Atlanta to raise their bid without damaging their payroll excessively. The idea was to add a 4th option year to a 3 year contract that had a high buyout price: $6 million.

When that option time came around, the club would decline it, pay the buyout, and it would effectively be a bonus check that effectively raised the annual rate by $2 million per year… a quickly-paid deferral, if you will.

The Twins implemented that very plan – albeit for the 5th year of a 4-year deal – and that was the separation they needed to end the standoff as the Braves chose not to match.

So instead of $21 million per year, Donaldson is effectively going to get $23 million per season – the same amount the Braves gave him in 2019.

Yes… he could get that option year picked up:  $16 million for his age 39 season. It would cost the Twins only $8 million extra (beyond the buyout rate) to do so.  But I wouldn’t expect it and the Twins don’t really either.

But this $8 million extra had to have been a fairly large bump to their bid – certainly we know that it caused Atlanta to yield. It’s reasonably possible that an Atlanta offer of 4×20 ($80 million) was their bid level.  4X21 probably might have matched the Twins before last week, and if so, that should have been enough to win.