Atlanta Braves looking for a bat after the rain left town
By Fred Owens
Number crunching Atlanta Braves potential targets
The columns are color-coded to identify the best in each list, and since we’re talking about thousandths of a point, if the stats were close, I gave them equal ranks.
All data from Fangraphs using their splits tool and variations on a custom player list
First are the full-season numbers.
PA | AB | wOBA | wRC+ | Colors | |
659 | 549 | .377 | 132 | ||
586 | 539 | .353 | 119 | Best | |
662 | 588 | .392 | 128 | Second | |
443 | 393 | .332 | 110 | Third | |
549 | 485 | .337 | 110 | ||
664 | 615 | .357 | 121 | ||
679 | 602 | .373 | 132 |
All of these players had good seasons, three of them as good or better than Donaldson and two pretty close behind.
Next, we have their numbers in elevated leverage, that’s Fangraphs medium and high-leverage combined.
PA | AB | wOBA | wRC+ | player ID | ||
245 | 199 | .361 | 121 | JoshD | ||
279 | 252 | .348 | 115 | 9241 | ||
340 | 296 | .403 | 136 | 9777 | Best | |
194 | 147 | .330 | 109 | 9785 | Second | |
296 | 267 | .329 | 104 | 10324 | Third | |
284 | 261 | .350 | 117 | 11737 | ||
304 | 268 | .338 | 109 | 15149 | ||
278 | 236 | .409 | 154 | 15429 |
In elevated leverage player 15429 stands out: He’s better than Donaldson, and player 9777 is close in game-changing situations as well.
Finally, here are the numbers with RISP.
PA | BA | wOBA | wRC+ | player ID | ||
147 | 119 | .383 | 136 | JD | ||
148 | 127 | .424 | 165 | 9241 | Best | |
177 | 140 | .412 | 141 | 9777 | Second | |
100 | 80 | .365 | 133 | 9785 | Third | |
156 | 134 | .339 | 111 | 10324 | ||
117 | 102 | .306 | 88 | 11737 | ||
164 | 139 | .330 | 103 | 15149 | ||
123 | 117 | .368 | 127 | 15429 |
In this case, we see a swapping of positions from elevated leverage situations, because all RISP situations aren’t game-changers.
So far, the top and bottom players on the list seem to offer the best options. Only one player listed batted fourth all season. Whether that makes a difference or not depends on the player. However, all have some experience in that slot in the order.
It seems that player 10324, might be a little light for the job, 9785 is steady overall and in leverage situations, and better with RISP. while 15149 shows a significant drop-off in leverage or RISP situations, from his day-to-day performance
In order of appearance
Here are the players listed in player ID order with all three sets of numbers by their names.
Season | Leverage | RISP | ||||
Player | wOBA | wRC+ | wOBA | wRC+ | wOBA | wRC+ |
Donaldson | .377 | 132 | .361 | 121 | .383 | 136 |
Marte | .353 | 119 | .348 | 115 | .424 | 165 |
Arenado | .392 | 128 | .403 | 136 | .412 | 141 |
Seager | .332 | 110 | .357 | 127 | .365 | 133 |
Ozuna | .337 | 110 | .329 | 104 | .339 | 111 |
Castellanos | .357 | 121 | .350 | 117 | .306 | 88 |
Mancini | .373 | 132 | .338 | 109 | .330 | 103 |
Bryant | .379 | 135 | .409 | 154 | .368 | 127 |
The only full-time number four-hitter in the list is Marte.
Arenado spent two-thirds of the season batting third and one-third batting fourth
Bryant split time between the second and third spots in the order
Castellanos hit second two-thirds of the time and third in his other PA
Marte batted third most of the season with 150 PA in the two-hole
Mancini hit split time between hitting second and hitting third
Seager missed all of April he split time between hitting fourth and sixth spots and hit everywhere but leadoff for the Mariners. Hitting four or six he put up significantly better numbers
- .343 wOBA, 118 wRC+ overall in 273 PA
- .357 wOBA 127 wRC+ in elevated leverage in 147 PA
- .414 wOBA, 166 wRC+ with RISP in 58 PA