Braves prospects: It’s time to view Tucker Davidson as elite

No longer just ‘one of the guys’

Considering the incredible depth and unmatched talent at the top of the Braves’ prospect class going into the 2019 season, apparently FanGraphs wasn’t too enthused with Davidson’s average numbers in High-A Florida the previous season.

The prospect guys there dropped him down to No. 20 and bumped his FV grade down to a 40, citing his stuff and command had taken a step back.

Regardless, the Braves tasked Davidson with Double-A Mississippi to start the 2019 season, where he joined a starting rotation that included Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz (traded midseason) and later on a new up-and-comer Jasseel De La Cruz.

Let’s just look at Davidson’s 2019 season by month, shall we…

• April: Davidson and Anderson separated themselves from the very beginning, though the former arguably even more with his elite ability to induce such weak contact. In Davidson’s first month, the lefty held opposing hitters to a .115 AVG while running a stingy 0.95 ERA in 19 innings pitched. Even better, it appeared that Davidson had now fully adjusted to his role as a starter, delivering much more consistent mid-90s velocity with his fastball.

• May: Davidson added strikeouts to the mix, punching out 38 batters in 35.1 innings (9.74 K/9), all the while maintaining his early form of success and posting a .218 BAA and 1.78 ERA.

• June: A month that was by far Davidson’s worst (though, ‘worst’ is used here only because of the high bar he set in his first two months with Mississippi). His numbers were actually more normal through June, including a 3.22 ERA and… oh my… two home runs allowed! (Davidson had only allowed one homer all season before then, but in his first outing of June he gave up two long balls.)

Including his lone start with Mississippi in August, Davidson’s July was a solid step back in the right direction, as he returned to his dominant self. By now, he and Anderson were essentially the face of Double-A’s Southern League, a one-two punch that featured the former’s league-leading ERA and the latter’s first-place K rate. It was time to wrap up yet another minor league level.

• July/August: Davidson made six starts in July (including his lone one in Aug.), striking out 37 in 34 innings (9.79 K/9) while posting a 2.12 ERA. Those last handful of starts ended his and Anderson’s time with Mississippi, as both joined Cristian Pache and Drew Waters on the shuttle to Triple-A Gwinnett, on August 5. Overall, the reliever-turned-frontline starter made 21 starts in Double-A in 2019, striking out 9.9 batters per nine and walking 3.7. His incredible 2.03 ERA there stood as the best in the Southern League, even after Davidson had moved on to better competition.

A change in scenery

Once in Gwinnett, Davidson (and Anderson) joined a starting staff that wasn’t depended upon very often. The Stripers’ lineup was a minor league version of the ’27 Yankees (really, the offense was unreal), where quality-starts delivered by pitchers were almost considered unnecessary.

Still, Davidson contributed with four outings, including a two-hitter in his very first start, lasting five innings and striking out four.

Altogether, his final numbers with the Stripers, of course, came in a small package, but Davidson still managed a 2.84 ERA, though admittedly a much lower K rate (5.7 K/9).

Davidson’s overall 2019 stats (AA/AAA)

• 25 starts, 129.2 innings, 8-7, 2.15 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

His short stint with Gwinnett was obviously enough for Stripers’ manager Damon Berryhill to use him when it mattered most, as Berryhill went with Davidson in Game 1 of the team’s playoff series versus Columbus.

It wasn’t exactly pretty, but Davidson labored through an 84-pitch outing before a rough third inning ruined his night.

He got the hook in the fourth with an uncharacteristic final line (3.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 BB. 3 K) and the Stripers wound up dropping the series in four games.