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Atlanta Braves: Josh Donaldson wrangling and the case against Nolan Arenado

By Alan Carpenter

Josh Donaldson (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Josh Donaldson (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 13: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 13, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 13: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 13, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Can We Justify Going to Denver?

Admittedly, I am still struggling with the notion of wanting the Atlanta Braves to pursue Nolan Arenado. There’s multiple reasons on the ‘pro’ and ‘con’ sides:

PRO ARENADO

  • Arenado is the better defender.  Josh is very good, but this isn’t even debateable, and future projections would lean heavily toward Arenado as one of the current Top 2 defenders in the game while Donaldson’s range wanes.
  • Durability. Arenado has played 155 or more games in 5 straight seasons.
    • Donaldson could say the same excepting the single injury (or related injuries) that limited him to half time for 2017-18… and the risk for a downside trend certainly is higher than even maintaining 150+ games for the next 4 seasons.
  • Arenado will turn 29 in April. Donaldson turned 34 a month ago. Arenado’s contract ends after his age 34 season.  That’s a big one.
  • It seems reasonable to expect that Donaldson will be the better player in 2020 and 2021 (though it would be close). For 2022 and 2023… not so much: he’s very good – but not going to improve from here.
  • There’s the potential for having third base ‘settled’ for the next 6 seasons.  With Donaldson, it would likely be settled for 2 and then the next 2 would be at some risk.
  • It’s reasonable to think Arenado might be better with a home base in Atlanta than his career road numbers might suggest.  This because Rockies players have to deal with the problem of frequent body adjustments as they travel between <=1000’ and 5000’ elevations every week or so.
  • Other than Arenado and Trevor Story, there’s really no one in the Rockies’ lineup that pitchers have to fear right now. Might that help his hitting with a deeper lineup in Atlanta?

CON ARENADO

  • A trade would truly be complicated:
    • Multiple premium prospects would be involved and no telling what Colorado would want to make this happen, particularly given the rest of the needs Atlanta would have to require (below).
    • You make this one big deal, and that could take Atlanta out for anything else significant – in other words:  you’d better be sure that Arenado is ‘the guy’.
    • Arenado’s contract opt-out would undoubtedly have to be waived or adjusted outward for at least a couple more years.
    • His no-trade clause would have to be waived, too (or at least ignored for now).
    • The Rockies would have to eat something in the realm of $6-8 million of Arenado’s salary for the next… oh, perhaps 5 seasons… totaling $30-40 million. This to reduce Atlanta’s obligation to the Donaldson-demand level of $27-29 million range annually.
    • Colorado’s willingness to do all that… is a tough ask.  Understandable, but tough.
  • Offensively:  Exit Velocities between the 2 players heavily favor Donaldson, which both bode well offensively for his aging and is concerning for Arenado’s future hitting (though could humidor baseballs be impacting his EV?).
  • Barrel percentages… same thing.

This is a tough call… while I love Arenado as a player, it feels like I’d only love him being in Denver because it’s extremely difficult to project his success at levels where the air is much more dense.

Add to that to the (good) chance MLB will be using baseballs that are at least a bit ‘less juiced’ during the coming season and you would have to wonder if someone like Arenado would be left with little more than ‘warning-track power’ at lower venues.

Honestly, projecting anything more is wild speculation.  So I really can’t say ‘the Braves ought to pursue this’.

All of this puts the Rockies in a terrible position, too:  by giving Arenado this opt-out after 2021 and then doing essentially nothing to improve on a bad team in 2019, they’re effectively begging him to leave.  So they really need to trade him.

By also making him the face of their franchise, the team is also required (for public relations purposes) to get a huge haul back.  It’s truly a mess of their own making and trading Arenado is going to prove difficult, given that all MLB Front Offices know the same things we’re putting on the ‘CON’ side… and more.

Which all brings us back to Donaldson… because it’s just too hard to justify going after Nolan Arenado.

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