Atlanta Braves New Year’s Mailbag: Is Josh Donaldson enough
By Fred Owens
What will Riley produce?
Josh B wants to know if Riley’s offense projects so badly that spending $100M on Donaldson over four years makes sense.
IF Riley were given the full time job, what would the projected numbers look like? & would they be that drastic enough to still spend $100 million on Donaldson over 4 years
— Joshua Betts (@JoshBetts) January 6, 2020
If I knew with reasonable certainty the answer to that question, I’d be making a lot more money doing this than I am. Riley’s historic scouting grades predicted him as an above-average power bat, who won’t hit for average and plays at least league average third base; in other words, a bat-first third-baseman.
The most common comp for – Troy Glaus – finished his career with numbers supporting ta similar grade. However, Glaus signed out of UC Los Angeles as a more polished hitter. In his only minor league season, Glaus batted .307/.402/.641/1.043, with 35 homers in 109 games split between AA and AAA.
He struggled in his September call-up,.218/.280/.291/.571, one homer in 165 AB, but came out of the gate the following year, putting the bat on the ball. Glaus never went more than four games without a hit that season and finished the year batting .240/.331/.450/.781, with 29 homers. 2.4 fWAR, a .341 wOBA, and 96 wRC+.
Glaus had ten years of steady production, though he played only 91 games in 2003 due to injury and 58 games in strike-shortened 2004. According to Baseball-Reference, Glaus batted 257/362/505/868 with a 124 OPS+ over those seasons, and Fangraphs says he produced a .366 wOBA and 122 wRC+. In that span, Glaus struck out at a rate above 22.9% once; 24% his sophomore – 47 homer – season and averaged 26 double and 30 homers a year.
How close to the comp?
Riley’s younger and may be a better all-around athlete than Glaus. He moved to left-field and played there well enough to handle the position every day. However, his bat has a lot of swing and miss in it, and his failure inability to adjust when pitchers figured out he couldn’t hit anything with a wrinkle, is cause for concern.
The best projections for 2020 have him figuring it out enough to earn around 450 PA, bat 250/309/465/769, hit ± 22 homers, produce 98 wRC+, and a .325 wOBA. Those numbers make him the starting left-fielder.
To give themselves the best chance to win, the Atlanta Braves need Donaldson or a similar bat, and at $100M, that bat is worth the money. The price for a quality player is precisely what the market makes it, no more, no less.