Grading the Atlanta Braves’ 2019 draft: picks 20-11
It will be several years until we can fully appreciate the Atlanta Braves’ 2019 draft, but it’s the perfect time to look back at each draftee’s performance this past season.
Today we’ve reached the middle of the Atlanta Braves 2019 draft class, the third post of our 2019 Draft Grades series.
No more non-signers, as all ten of the following players were drafted and signed, though each performance this past season still varied widely.
However, there are a couple of players within this list that will most likely crack a few Braves’ prospect rankings this upcoming season, after more than fulfilling expectations in their first taste of professional baseball.
To jump back to the Braves’ first two groups of players from the 2019 draft:
- Post #1: Picks 41-31
- Post #2: Picks 30-21
Also, a refresher on what it is we’re doing in this exercise…
The Method
In this series, we will look at each and every player drafted (and signed) by the Braves in 2019, though to break this up a bit we’ll cover the class in four pieces, with today’s column covering picks 20 down to 11.
The group of 10 will include a table featuring each player’s last minor league level reached, and most importantly — as a way to characterize each player’s 2019 performance — I will give each player a grade:
- A: excelled
- B: held his own
- C: struggled
This may seem like an oversimplified way to go about such a thing, but the focus here is less about the actual grading rubric and more about simply determining how each player performed in their first professional season.
Choosing A, B and C obviously allows for only three different grade outcomes, which is plenty for such a small sample of results (most of these players played no more than 30-35 games).
We must remember that these players were drafted for a reason and giving a struggling 18-year-old an ‘F’ in his first taste of minor league baseball probably doesn’t accurately represent his actual skills on a baseball field.
So don’t interpret each grade as a description of the player’s talent level.
Braves’ 2019 draft: picks 20-11
| PLAYER | LAST LVL | GRADE |
|---|---|---|
| OF, Kadon Morton | GCL | C |
| 1B, Mahki Backstrom | GCL | A |
| RHP, Alec Barger | Danville | B |
| RHP, Joey Estes | GCL | C |
| OF, Connor Blair | Danville | C |
| RHP, Jared Johnson | GCL | A |
| RHP, Tyler Owens | Danville | A |
| LHP, Andy Samuelson | GCL | B |
| SS, Vaughn Grissom | GCL | A |
| OF, Brandon Parker | Danville | B |
(listed ages are for 2020 season)
No. 20, Kadon Morton, OF
19-years-old — 6’2″, 195 lbs.
Grade: C
2019 stats: 32 games, .152 AVG, 1 home run, 5 doubles, 9 RBI
Despite his first pro season being sort of bland, there’s a ton of upside with Morton, who many have projected to be a five-tool outfielder (he can also pitch). He just turned 19-years-old in November, so obviously he’s still super young; but he was definitely overmatched in the GCL in 2019, striking out 40% of the time in just over 30 games. Morton has good size (6’2″, 195 lbs.) and as he fills out he should start living up to his projections.
No. 19, Mahki Backstrom, 1B
18-years-old — 6’5″, 220 lbs.
Grade: A
2019 stats: 23 games, .300 AVG, 2 home runs, 5 doubles, 8 RBI
Many expected Backstrom to go in the first round of the draft, though vision issues reportedly caused him to struggle in his last prep season. This is you prototypical first baseman, big in size (6’5″, 220 lbs.) while wielding a big swing. Backstrom, just 18-years-old during the 2019 season, showed off his skills by hitting for a strong average and even popping a couple of homers while with the GCL team. He will need to keep a hold on his strikeouts, though (32.9 K%).
No. 18, Alec Barger, RHP
22-years-old — 6’2″, 201 lbs.
Grade: B
2019 stats: 13 starts, 40 innings, 5.85 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 7 home runs
Home runs hurt the 21-year-old Barger in his first pro season with the Danville Braves (1.6 HR/9), though he still struck out 43 batters in 40 innings worth of work. Barger was actually drafted higher in 2018 (16th RD by the Brewers), but chose to transfer from Northern Illinois to NC State instead, where he was able to work on his three-pitch repertoire that features a 96 mph fastball.
No. 17, Joey Estes, RHP
18-years-old — 6’2″, 190 lbs.
Grade: C
2019 stats: 5 starts, 10 innings, 8.10 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 6.3 BB/9
On draft day Estes was a 17-year-old flamethrower (95 mph fastball) already blessed with four pitches, including a wicked slider. Unfortunately, his stuff didn’t play well in the GCL as he ran into trouble in his second professional start, surrendering five runs and walking four in just 1.1 innings; that after striking out three in a two-inning one-hitter in his first pro outing. Estes still has plenty of time to develop and should bounce back with a full season in 2020.
No. 16, Connor Blair, OF
22-years-old — 6’0″, 215 lbs.
Grade: C
2019 stats: 43 games, .194 AVG, 4 home runs, 6 doubles, 21 RBI, 3 stolen bases
The expectations aren’t too high for Blair, as he is seen as being more of low-contact corner outfielder with some potential in the power department. He wasn’t too great in his first stop at Danville (.206 AVG) and then got even worse once moved up to Single-A Rome (.105 AVG). The hope is that Blair can manage his strikeouts and perhaps unlock some power in the next few seasons.
Braves’ 2019 Picks: 15-11
No. 15, Jared Johnson, RHP
19-years-old — 6’2″, 225 lbs.
Grade: A
2019 stats: 6 starts,15.1 innings, 3.52 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Here’s a potential starting pitching prospect you maybe haven’t heard of, as Johnson wasn’t on a lot of teams’ radars leading up to the draft. As a 6-foot-2, 18-year-old in the GCL this past season, Johnson was terrific and didn’t allow a single run until his third pro start — his worst outing of the year (4 ER). His last three starts: 8.1 innings, 6 hits, 2 ER, 11 Ks. Johnson looks like the real deal.
No. 14, Tyler Owens, RHP
19-years-old — 5’10”, 185 lbs.
Grade: A
2019 stats: 9 starts, 1 app., 27.1 innings, 4.28 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2 home runs
A bit undersized and armed with an unusual delivery on the mound, teams perhaps shouldn’t have passed on the hard throwing Owens, who made the Braves look smart by striking out 10+ batters per nine as an 18-year-old in rookie ball. He doesn’t quite have the pitch mix to be projected as a starter just yet, but Owens already has a 98-mph fastball, a strong slider and is currently working on a changeup, meaning starter potential could be on his scouting report as soon as 2020.
No. 13, Andy Samuelson, RHP
21-years-old — 6’4″, 185 lbs.
Grade: B
2019 stats: 8 app., 12 innings, 6.39 ERA, 14.92 K/9, 4.26 BB/9
Samuelson is a potential high-leverage arm in a major league bullpen, though despite his 6’4″ frame only tops out in the low-90s with his fastball. So how did he post such a high K rate? Well, Samuelson may not have high velocity, but he has a filthy curveball he throws in the low-80s. That hard curveball helped the lanky righty rank as the No. 36 prospect on the JUCO Top 100 this past April.
No. 12, Vaughn Grissom, SS
19-years-old — 6’3″, 180 lbs.
Grade: A
2019 stats: 44 games, .288 AVG, 3 home runs, 7 doubles, 23 RBI, 3 stolen bases
No, he isn’t related to former Brave Marquis Grissom, but he was a teammate of 2019’s first round pick (5th overall), Riley Greene, at Paul J. Hagerty High School (Florida). Grissom is said to have all the tools: contact, power, speed and defense, and he put all of those qualities on display in his first pro season in the GCL as an 18-year-old. In fact, he posted very similar numbers to that of Greene, who was selected 332 picks before Grissom.
No. 11, Brandon Parker, OF
21-years-old — 6’1″, 205 lbs.
Grade: B
2019 stats: 48 games, .210 AVG, 4 home runs, 5 doubles, 22 RBI, 4 stolen bases
The industry predicted that Parker would swing and miss a lot in the pros, and he did just that, striking out 37.5% of the time while in Danville this past season. However, as a 20-year-old in the Appy League, Parker did show he could hold his own by posting nine multi-hit games, including a three-hit performance in the last week of the season. As a player out of a community college, Parker performed respectable in his first taste of pro ball.
Next. Not all trades are made in Winter. dark
Up next time: the Braves top-10 picks.