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Offseason progress in the NL East: the Atlanta Braves

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 18: First baseman Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning during the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at SunTrust Park on April 18, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 18: First baseman Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning during the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at SunTrust Park on April 18, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /
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MADRID, SPAIN: The MP-203 highway, which was built to decongest the Barcelona highway (A-2), has remained unfinished for 6 years after an initial investment 70 millions Euro between 2005 and 2007, despite the completion of around 70 percent of the 12.5 kilometer project. (Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)
MADRID, SPAIN: The MP-203 highway, which was built to decongest the Barcelona highway (A-2), has remained unfinished for 6 years after an initial investment 70 millions Euro between 2005 and 2007, despite the completion of around 70 percent of the 12.5 kilometer project. (Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images) /

Incomplete Effort

The Atlanta Braves have been quite aggressive, and that suggests a seriousness to push for more than just a division title.

Yet while third base remains a priority, they’ve opted – so far – to distinguish “aggressive” from “reckless” in the bidding for Donaldson.

That’s left a hole in an otherwise heckuva start this Winter.

Let’s check the positional issues before we go there:

OUTFIELD

  • The entire outfield produced 9.3 fWAR in 2019.
    • Around 60% of that was Ronald Acuna.
    • Much of the rest was from the ‘good days’ of Austin Riley and Adam Duvall
  • Ender Inciarte will be back, but truly needs to stay healthy, which is always a challenge for an outfielder.  His plate work has been sketchy, though, and a repeat of that could give the team trouble in reaching that 9.3 again.
  • Outfield defense should be very good, so long as Acuna and Inciarte are doing most of it from CF and Rf
  • Depth will come from Cristian Pache, Austin Riley, and perhaps Drew Waters.  Many teams would kill for this kind of backup depth.

INFIELD

  • Freeman and Albies should be excellent… both have what it takes to be consistent performers.
  • Dansby Swanson took a strong incremental step forward offensively, though a step back defensively.  He needs to get to the .260-270 hitting level.
  • Third base?  Give me a minute here.

CATCHING

  • If d’Arnaud plays more often (perhaps 2 for every one that Flowers catches), then that should work well offensively for both, and perhaps a bit defensively for Flowers.
  • Learning new pitchers thoroughly should be d’Arnaud’s Spring goal – not hitting, not even defense… just how to get the most from his new staff.

ROTATION

  • The Braves lost the potential for 400 innings in allowing Keuchel and Teheran to walk away.
  • Hamels will return close to half of those innings.  Soroka/Fried/Folty need to get the rest.
  • There is a contest for rotation slot #5 with Newcomb the presumed heir apparent.  If he falters, others will need to step up.

BULLPEN

  • I have no concerns about the bullpen whatsoever

Offensively, there’s a chance that the Braves could be a victim of an over-corrected baseball in 2020… if Rawlings does something to “fix” the 2019 baseball (I don’t know if you’ve heard, but baseballs were flying out of stadiums), then several of the Braves will find they have only Warning Track Power in 2020.

There’s probably not a great way to find out how badly one team or another could be impacted by a baseball flying X% shorter distances that last year, but it feels like the Braves (Inciarte, Swanson, Albies, maybe d’Arnaud) could be impacted more than most.

Then again, Nick Markakis was having trouble hitting anything out of the park even with the juiced baseball, so that isn’t likely to change.

Still, this is a group of youngsters who are molding into veterans in front of our eyes.  They should do better in 2020… across the board.

On Pitching… the rotation is still an exciting group that should show incremental improvement, extending their own excellent work from 2019… including Hamels.

The 5th rotation spot is a quandry, but while there could be trouble, “hot hands” will be readily available from Gwinnett without much delay.  This is pretty much how the Braves handled their 1st half of the season in 2019 anyway.

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