Atlanta Braves reportedly now offering four years for Josh Donaldson
Two former General Managers – Jim Bowden and Steve Phillips – are reporting this morning that a Donaldson signing delay is about a continued bidding escalation. The Atlanta Braves – for now – are still in the hunt.
In a bit of a shift from what we’ve heard previously on the subject, it’s not the ‘years’ that are separating the Atlanta Braves from a reunion with the hot corner slugger whose presence they enjoyed in 2019… it’s more about a fiercely competitive bidding market.
As with virtually every other free agent of significance who has already signed this Winter, we could see end up seeing Josh Donaldson get much more out of his next contract than anybody had anticipated.
The prior belief had been that the Braves were desperately clinging to an offer of a 3-year pact. That has been shattered in news from a former General Manager: Jim Bowden.
Bowden had a controversial career running the Reds and Nationals while as a GM, but he remains quite well connected in the industry and his information suggests that there may be an outright bidding war underway for the former MVP.
Bowden weighed in with multiple nuggets about Donaldson this morning during The Leadoff Show on MLB Network Radio (subscriber access only; transcripted from streaming services; no links available):
“I have a source on the Donaldson side that has told me the Braves have gone to four years…. But my understand is that both the Nationals and the Braves along with the Twins have gone to four [years]”
He suggested this was a single source, unconfirmed by the either teams or the player directly (you’ll never get that confirmation while negotiations are actively in play) but that he trusted the information enough to say ‘this is what I’m going with’.
He and former Mets GM Steve Phillips agreed that the final contract for Donaldson might not be stopping there, either, as the Twins are seriously in on the bidding up along with Washington and Atlanta. Bowden also guessed that other teams “are in this thing” (the Mets and Phillies were named in particular) and could at least be hanging around in the auction house as well.
Bowden also raised the specter that the ceiling for Donaldson’s services isn’t the $25 million annual rate that seems to have been assumed. He’s suggesting that something even higher is likely at this point.
“I had originally thought 3 years and 75 [million]. I quickly pivoted and went 4 at $100 [million] and then I went to 4 at $112, and now I’m not sure it isn’t more than that.”
$112 million for 4 years (that’s $28 million annually)? Or maybe $125 million ($25 million for five seasons)??
“You’ve got to 4 years pretty quick… can you get to five? … Are you sure someone’s not going to go five years at 25 and get this done?”
At this time, if all suitors are offering 4 years, Bowden is wondering – and Phillips agreed – if it wouldn’t take a fifth year (perhaps manifested as a 5th year vesting option) to be that ‘separator’ that makes one club’s offer stand alone from the rest.
That’s certainly been the pattern we’ve seen this offseason with everyone involved: overpaying for the best free agents.
That rightly brought up the subject of ‘Plan B’.
There’s More
Bowden’s information is that if Donaldson ends up signing elsewhere, the Braves ‘he’s been told’ will “pivot” to Marcel Ozuna or Nick Castellanos.
Both offer less production on the offensive side as Donaldson, and both have – let’s say ‘issues’ defensively – but Atlanta clearly needs a bat to support and lengthen their lineup for 2020 and perhaps beyond.
For his part, Bowden told listeners this morning that he’d want an MRI of Ozuna’s shoulder before committing to him because of throwing concerns, but that’s a side issue as this point – teams would undoubtedly do that kind of ‘due diligence’.
This revelation would certainly explain why neither of these players have signed yet – as clients of super-agent Scott Boras, part of their playbook is to leverage the most demand they can create, and thus they should be content to wait for Donaldson to sign… which could bring the Braves or others into the picture for these outfielders.
As a result – and again, based on everything we’ve already been seeing this Winter – these GMs are expecting both players to hit $20 million annually before they sign.
In this scenario, Atlanta could still explore the trade market for a third baseman or attempt to resolve the position internally – with Johan Camargo and/or Austin Riley. But if Donaldson’s bids are up in the stratosphere approaching $28 million per season, then other options start becoming more attractive.
But back to Donaldson… at what point would you have to say ‘he’s just too expensive’ and then try something else. Well, we’ve got to be getting close right?
The Trigger
While neither of this show’s analysts were ready to jump into the speculation about a third baseman like Nolan Arenado, his name did come up a few times this morning, since after all: getting Donaldson at $28 million per year makes a Nolan Arenado deal – perhaps making some sense to pursue.
Bowden – after suggesting that teams would go to Chicago (Bryant) or Colorado (Arenado) to ‘build leverage’ against Donaldson – initially dismissed the idea that Atlanta would even entertain such an idea of trading for Arenado, but after a break (and perhaps an off-air consultation with Phillips??) he seemed to thaw on the idea a bit.
Clearly, the opt-out clause – which Bowden indicated had been given to Arenado by the Rockies Front Office… it had allegedly not been requested – would be something the Braves would want waived as a condition for spending the prospects required to obtain Arenado.
Speculation made on the prior MLB Network Radio overnight show – Round Trip – suggested that no team wants to spend multiple top prospects for any other player these days, but with respect to Arenado, a package starting with Riley and pitcher Kyle Wright might at least get a conversation started.
Beyond that, Atlanta would clearly want some salary relief from Colorado, and that in turn would demand variously increasing levels of prospects returning to the Rockies… but we’re getting ahead of ourselves by quite a bit, so let’s stop right there.
In any case, it’s pretty clear that the bidding for Donaldson is getting to nutty levels… at what point does Atlanta declare ‘enough is enough’ and walk away?
dark. Next. Reviewing The Nationals So Far This Winter
As of this date… it seems we aren’t there yet.