Off-season evaluation of the Atlanta Braves NL East’s rivals: the Mets

Mad Declarations

I say “Mad” in the context of demented, loony, loopy, inane, and nutty.  The “Declarations” are those made on the MLB Network Channel on the day after Christmas when they discussed the Mets after Betances was signed.

The question here was answered as ‘the Mets’ thanks to their new ‘depth’ (though it was admitted that a Josh Donaldson signing to Washington or Atlanta will flip their answers in that direction).

Let’s pump the brakes for them just a bit.

Yes – on paper – they have a chance to be really good, but here’s the sequence of events that has to play out for that to happen:

BULLPEN

• Edwin Diaz has to be a lot closer to his 2018 self (1.96 ERA) and not at all like his 2019 self (5.59 ERA)
• Jeurys Familia has to be a lot closer to his 2018 self (3.13 ERA) and not at all like his 2019 self (5.70 ERA)
• Seth Lugo has to stay like his 2017-2018 self (2.67 ERA)
• Betances (career 2.36 ERA) has to be injury-free and fully recovered from his Achilles injury

ROTATION

• Zack Wheeler is gone, so Rick Porcello is going to have to at least replace those innings (195) and ERA (3.96).  He’s capable, and a fresh start – albeit in New York, that’s still an intense environment – might help.
• Steven Matz needs to take a step forward… more innings an better numbers (4.24 in 2019).
• Jacob deGrom needs to have another Cy Young-level year
• Noah Syndergaard needs to ignore the fact that the Mets wanted to trade him last Summer and figure out how to throw better than a 4.28 ERA
• Marcus Stroman needs to simply settle in now that he’s a full-time New Yorker now

POSITION PLAYERS

• Jeff McNeil might play third base because nobody else is available
• Robbie Cano is still at 2nd base.  That can’t end well.
• It seems that everybody wants to trade Brandon Nimmo elsewhere, which is a little bizarre.  But he or Jake Marisnick are the center fielders
• C Wilson Ramos was okay in 2019, but the team still somehow expected more
• JD Davis hit a ton for half a season last year… can he repeat that?
• If Cespedes actually returns… does he even has a position to play?

So in total, the Mets need to have positive answers to all of the “If” questions littering this positional run-down in order to have the breakthrough season they crave in New York.

Here’s a bulletin:  this team’s spate of bad health and bad luck spanning multiple seasons shouldn’t make anyone that optimistic… and in general, that’s an awful lot of things that have to go right for them… never mind doing this with a new manager trying to feel his way through the process for the first time.

Their biggest concern is probably team defense, which was terrible last season and truthfully doesn’t look any better this time, either… a problem that their pitching can’t overcome without striking out everyone.

Swinging for the Fences

It does appear that the Mets do have most everything covered to some extent – that’s a lot more than can be said about the Phillies at this stage, so it is reasonable to believe that they will be better than Philadelphia.  Thus, we’ll give them the benefits of several doubts – especially in the bullpen.

The battle vs. the Braves and Nationals is – as yet – incomplete and highly dependent on Josh Donaldson.  The argument I’d raise now is that the National need Donaldson more than Atlanta, but there’s an expectation that both clubs will have some sort of impact bat – somehow – before the Spring camps open.

Thus this outlook…

Mets projection for 2020:  87-75 record, 3rd place in NL East and the second Wild Card team.