Braves: Cole Hamels effect on Josh Donaldson and roster construction
The Atlanta Braves signed LHP Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18 million deal. How will this move affect the rest of the offseason and projected battling lineups for the Braves in 2020?
The Atlanta Braves declared they wanted to spend money this offseason and they have.
On November 21st, Liberty Media (Atlanta Braves parent company) CEO, Greg Maffei was interviewed by David Faber on CNBC. Faber asked about varying ventures Liberty is involved with, including the Atlanta Braves.
Here are some of the highlights of that interview. You can see the video here.
Faber: “Atlanta Braves, another thing people may not realize…” Maffei: “Better than the Mets, again!” Faber: “Although, the Mets did not have a bad season. “ Maffei: “Yeah, if you don’t mind not winning.” He would go on to add, “I really don’t like the Mets.” Faber asked about offseason moves to which Maffei said “Yeah, we are going to spend some money and we have relative freedom under the cap and in our payroll.”
He then took another jab at the Mets’ financial situation.
I really like this guy. I know we think of Liberty Media as a faceless evil spirit, but this guy is the CEO and he is pretty awesome.
Current Payroll
Prior to the Hamels deal, the current payroll was about where we started the past two seasons, right around $118 million. The Hamels deal has put us near our season-ending number of $141 million in 2019.
Are we done spending?
The Braves hit a new record of $442 million in 2018. The MLBPA and MLB has set a target at 50% of revenue going toward payroll. That includes minor league salaries and player benefits, so put your calculators away.
I’m going to throw a couple of ballpark numbers out to you, because ultimately, we are just guessing on how much the Opening Day payroll will be. So, humor me, or let me humor you…let’s humor each other.
Revenue goes up, so shouldn’t the payroll?
In 2016 the Atlanta Braves grossed $262 million in revenue. In 2018 the revenue soared to $442 million. The move to SunTrust and the influx of young studs has created an urge for fans to show up and spend money.
Considering the Braves brought in $442 million in 2018, the revenue is probably going to be even higher in 2019, thus higher in 2020.
Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and go with $440 million. We’ll give them $20 million (usually an overshoot) for minor league payroll and $15 million for 2020’s player benefits.
Now, let’s assume our 26-man roster will have an Opening Day budget of $150 million.
This is very complicated, so hang with me.
150 + 20 + 15 = 185/440
185/440 = 42%. payroll/revenue
Sorry to confuse you like that.
The MLBPA won’t like this number. The league average in 2018 was 54.2%. I’ve been really generous to the Braves with my approximations.
The MLBPA and Major League Baseball essentially have recommended that the Braves need to spend around $180 million on their Opening Day payroll, based on the revenue numbers.
In that case, it keeps the hope for Donaldson alive, but it is highly unlikely a team would boost it’s payroll $60 million between opening days.
If revenue continues to stay in the $400-million range, there might be some pressure to bring that payroll up in the future.
Considering the young talent and the window of opportunity, I agree with Greg Maffei, let’s spend some money now… and the Mets suck!
I seriously doubt we are going to see the Braves go out and sign Josh Donaldson in addition to the Hamels deal. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility.
So let’s play around with the numbers a little and see what will be possible with Hamels now planted firmly in the rotation.
Other needs
Based on the numbers we reviewed in the previous slide, we are going to give Alex Anthopoulos about $14 million to play with in this scenario.
Needs: 3B, OF, middle-order bat
Hypothetical Budget: $150 million
Current Payroll Estimate: $136 million
Fake Money to Spend: $14 million
Notes: Mets suck!
Outfield
Depending on how much we spend at third, the outfield could stay the same. That means if we pay up for third along with the $18 million we just handed over to Hamels, we are sticking with what we have in the outfield.
I know some of you are not excited about this prospect, but please give the article below a read for insightful statistics that I have generously provided for you.
Related Story. Markakis/Duvall the right fit in left field. light
Pitching
The Hamels signing still leaves a void at the fifth spot as my assumption is Sean Newcomb will provide long-relief and a much needed left-handed arm to the bullpen.
Here’s a look at three in-house candidates to round out the rotation in this scenario.
Kyle Wright entered the 2019 season as the #30 prospect according to MLB.com. He pitched in 19.2 innings with the big club last season and gave up four homers, 13 walks, and 19 earned runs.
Yes, that’s 13 walks and 19 earned runs in 19.2 innings. Luckily, he was much better over 112.1 innings in Triple-A with a 4.17 ERA.
Bryse Wilson was as awful as Wright last year in the Major Leagues. In 20 innings he gave up 10 walks and 16 earned runs. In 21 starts at Triple-A Gwinnett, he fared much better with a 3.42 ERA.
Ian Anderson is worth mentioning here, but he needs more seasoning. Anderson has only logged 24.2 innings in Triple-A thus far in his career.
His 130.1 innings in Double-A have left very good results. In that time, he has posted a 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9.
If our mystery fifth starter struggles for the first couple of months of the season and Anderson continues to excel, the Braves may need to call him up.
light. Related Story. Austin Riley as everyday third baseman
Third Base
Currently, the Braves have Austin Riley and Johan Camargo manning the hot corner. Their goal is to NOT have them manning the hot corner.
We have tirelessly documented how bad these two were last season. We don’t need to beat a dead horse, that’s just morbid. Beat a dead cow, we eat cows, that makes it okay.
Hop in the Delorian and let’s take a look into how the Hamels signing has affected our future lineups.
Scenario #1
Needs: 3B, OF, middle-order bat
Hypothetical Budget: $150 million
Current Payroll Estimate: $136 million
Fake Money to Spend: $14 million
Notes: Mets suck!
Step 1- Sign left-handed starting pitcher. CHECK.
Step 2 –Sign a splashy outfield bat to offset the risks of Inciarte and the left field platoon.
Step 3 – Roll with in-house options at third base or sign Ryon Healy to a minor league contract.
Potential Targets: Nicholas Castellanos, Yasiel Puig, Marcell Ozuna, Domingo Santana, Corey Dickerson
All these guys provide serious pop. Domingo Santana was on a torrid pace last season with 18 homers before the All-Star break. Injuries derailed his second half, but just two yours ago he hit 30 homers with the Brewers.
Santana was non-tendered by the Mariners Monday and is going to provide someone a nice power/speed threat in the outfield. Why not the Braves?
Castellanos has a track record of being a poor fielder, but he has a career slugging percentage of .471. in 2017 he had 36 doubles, 26 homers, and led the league with 10 triples.
Last season with the lowly Tigers, Castellanos only mustered 11 homers in his first 100 games. He was traded to the Cubs where he was reinvigorated. He hit 16 homers in 212 ABs while slashing .321/.356/.646. You can overlook a few defensive miscues for numbers like that.
Yasiel Puig could be a ton of fun to watch when you mix him with Ronald Acuna Jr.and Ozzie Albies. He has the power/speed combo with a cannon of an arm. He should be around $10 million for one year.
Any of these guys would give the Braves great depth in the outfield and would work as insurance in case of an injury. Adding one of these impact bats might also open up the potential for a trade of Ender Inciarte.
It may seem like a stretch, but if the Braves are out of the Josh Donaldson sweepstakes, then these are value-impact bats that can fit into the Braves lineup.
Projected Money Spent: $10-15 million
We have OF and Cole Hamels, now what about that fifth rotation spot?
By spending $18 million on Hamels and $10-15 million on an impact outfielder, the Braves won’t have enough to spend on Donaldson at third.
They should have enough to scrape a veteran right-hander off of the bottom of the barrel. This may not be a bad idea with the uncertainties of the youth we are projected to have right now.
Pitching: Tier-Two Free Agents
Targets: Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran
Visualize the difference between adding a veteran or sticking with in-house options.
Option 1 – In-house
Soroka
Hamels
Foltynewicz
Fried
Wilson/Wright???
Option 2 – Veteran
Teheran
Soroka
Hamels
Foltynewicz
Fried
I have a couple of notes. The first rotation has more question marks. Do you know why? Yes, it’s because I put three of them next to “Wilson/Wright.”
Also, you may have noticed Teheran is listed as the Opening Day starter in Option 2, I did that just to irritate you.
Projected Lineup
RF Acuna
2B Albies
1B Freeman
LF Castellanos*
C d’Arnaud
3B Healy*
SS Swanson
CF Ender Inciarte
Pitcher
Key Bench Players
Markakis
Duvall
Camargo
Riley (Although in this scenario he would likely start in Triple-A)
Projected Money Spent: $18 million on Hamels, $10-15 million on an outfielder, $8-10 million on a RHP veteran pitcher. This scenario puts us at a minimum of $154 million.
It’s high compared to the previous season but not as a percentage of our revenue. It’s do-able. If we currently sit at $136 million and we can afford $154 million, might we find enough to bring back the rain in the next slide?
Scenario #2
Step One- Cole Hamels, CHECK.
Step Two – Sign Donaldson at $20-$25 million per year.
Now that the Reds have made a pact with Mike Moustakas, there’s really nothing left at third. So, let’s say the Braves go all-in on Donaldson and get him for the $23 million he was paid last year, but over three years with an option for a fourth. How would that look?
Projected Lineup
RF Acuna
2B Albies
1B Freeman
3B Donaldson
C d’Arnaud
RF Markakis/Duvall
SS Swanson
CF Inciarte
Pitcher
Step Two- In-house pitching, we discussed this earlier. No second-tier pitcher.
This is an all in-house pitching staff since we spent all our money on Donaldson. We could potentially scrape the bottom of the barrel for someone, or come up with a trade, but for the sake of this article, it’s all in-house.
Projected Rotation
Soroka
Fried
Foltynewicz
Newcomb
Wilson/Wright/Anderson/Touissant/Luke Danes/Randy Poffo – we aren’t signing a free agent here.
Projected Budget with Donaldson and Hamels: $159 million.
Remember earlier about the revenue? This is possible, but will they go for it? Do you think the Braves could pass on Donaldson and an outfielder and go after one more big arm like Madison Bumgarner?
Related Story. The case for and against Madbum. light
Which of these projections do you think are the best? Should we make a trade for Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, or Kris Bryant? If you want to go that route, are you prepared to get rid of either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters? That’s a discussion for another time.
Next. Non-Tendering Charlie Culberson was the smart move. dark
This should give you an idea of what our roster could look like if we do not sign a frontline starting pitcher. What are you thoughts? Let us know in the comments below.