Atlanta Braves at the faux Winter Meetings Epilogue
By Fred Owens
Atlanta Braves avoided overpaying in simulated deals
If you’ve ever taken part in an auction, you know that a person’s determination to win can push the price beyond realistic values, that’s what happened with the top three starting pitchers. Here’s how the bidding proceeded for Gerrit Cole.
The Phillies started boldly with seven years and $35M. In retrospect, I might have succeeded had I waited until the last-minute to jump in, but that’s an optimistic and probably inaccurate view.
I went slightly over my self-imposed limit in an attempt to let set the bar high enough to convince others to go elsewhere. I found out later that the Phillies crew had little intention of sticking to anything resembling a budget until reminded by the Commissioner that realism was required.
Player
Bidder
AAV $MM
YRS
Total Value MM
Gerrit Cole
Phillies
$35
7
$245
Braves
$32.5
8
$260
Yankees
$34.38
8
$275
Phillies
$36.13
8
$289
The Yankees outbid me anyway, so It made no difference, but even the Yankees didn’t want to go where the Phillies went to get Cole. The odd amount in the Phillies last bid is due to calculating the minimum bid they could make under the rules to win.
Once Cole moved off, the board, I offered Madison Bumgarner a simulated five-year, $90M contract. Zack Wheeler’s offers moved quickly out of what I considered a realistic contract range at that time, and Bumgarner looked the last chance for a deal I could justify to myself. He ended up with a simulated five-year $21M deal with the Yankees that I doubt the real-life Yankees would even consider.
Third base blues
Once I got the go-ahead to open discussions, my first message went to the Marlins, asking about Brian Anderson, in a package built around Austin Riley. I didn’t hear back that day and in an attempt to cover all bases, reached out to the Diamondbacks about Eduardo Escobar, the Reds for Eugenio Suarez, and the Royals asking about Hunter Dozier.
Had I sent Ender Inciarte to the Reds or Diamondbacks, my search for a third baseman would have been over, but I wasn’t ready to trade him that early, my board had Anderson and Dozier on top and Donaldson next in line.
When the Marlins did respond, I offered a starter along with Riley, but I couldn’t get them to open negotiations. Messages with the Royals brought the same result, although I thought he might start talking at the end. Instead, he stopped answering, and I moved on.
When I pivoted to Josh Donaldson after the pitchers disappeared, I made a strong opening bid. The Dodgers and Nationals were already on the board, but neither offered four years, and I knew it would take at least that to sign him.
Once I made my bid, it became clear the Dodgers were bargain hunting, as they didn’t get involved again. The Nationals withdrew their bid after signing Anthony Rendon to a simulated seven-year $210M deal that closed before bidding on Bumgarner.
Player
Bidder
AAV $MM
YRS
Total Value MM
Josh Donaldson
Dodgers
20
2
$40
Nationals
25
3
$75
Braves
22
4
$88
Rangers
23.5
3
$70.5
Rangers
26
3
$78
Braves
25
4
$100
The Rangers first offer didn’t meet the minimum bid increase requirement, so they upped their bid just before the anti-sniping window. I caught that and increased my bid, but it was within the snipe area.
The Rangers had one hour to bid again, but they chose not to, and Donaldson became a member of the Atlanta Braves again on a simulated four-year $100M deal.