Atlanta Braves Minors: Prospects who could debut in 2020

The Not Likely Group

The reasons may vary somewhat, but the following three players in this group either lack much time in Triple-A or lack a strong performance in Triple-A.

However, no one says a player must master Triple-A before he can be granted permission to enter the royal land of MLB, but considering the expectations of these players, I don’t see the Braves bringing either of these guys up as simply fill-ins.

Meaning, I’m under the impression that the following players will be brought up in a more careful and orderly way, whether it’s because the organization already has a player they feel better about or because the said player is a starting pitcher and the team would like to avoid jerking him back-and-forth as a reliever.

OF, Drew Waters / RHP, Ian Anderson

LHP, Tucker Davidson

Waters fits the “the organization already has a player they feel better about” mold, as I’m willing to bet if one of the two — Waters or Pache — were to be promoted it would be Pache.

However, I also believe that Waters has closed the gap between them substantially, and the two are ranked perhaps as 1A and 1B rather than Nos. 1 and No. 2.

I know we’ve been looking at Waters and Pache as more of a duo for a while now, but the truth is, it’s actually rather doubtful that they BOTH are promoted to the majors at the exact same time.

Roster spots at the big league level are precious — especially with the new rules coming in 2020 — and the Braves will be forced to choose the player they feel the most confident about.

Waters hasn’t yet matched Pache in terms of defense and plate discipline, so if that one spot were to open up… it will likely NOT go to Waters.

Anderson will likely remain a starting pitcher, if for no other reason than that he has dominated as a starter for four seasons now (80 starts, 2.91 ERA, 10.7 K/9).

As a top-3 prospect in the Braves system, as solely a starter, I’m sure you can agree that it’s probably best he stays that way regardless of a promotion to the majors. He’s likely not getting the Max Fried treatment.

A lot will be determined by what the Braves do this winter, but it’s looking more and more like there will be one open rotation spot at the big league level, with Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright and possibly Sean Newcomb left to scrap over it.

I’m no expert in math, but three players to fill one spot will leave two players as depth options. Meaning, theoretically those two depth pitchers will be ahead of Anderson in the Braves reserve-pitcher hierarchy, and rightfully so.

Even with his overall 3.38 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in 2019, between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett, Anderson isn’t quite ready for a major league debut.

Judging by his 5 starts in Gwinnett at the tail end of this past season (6.57 ERA), a full year with the Stripers should go a long way for him.

Davidson is my sleeper pick, my wild card.. the Braves X-factor if you will. Without delving too much into his early days in the organization, Davidson has gone from a mostly unheard of 19th round pick by the Braves — he pitched at a college in Texas (Midland College) with roughly 4,500 students — to quite possibly a top-10 prospect in the organization (FanGraphs’ THE BOARD is set to update soon).

Despite how great the lefty has been thus far, he still doesn’t have quite the upside as Anderson, even though Davidson actually pitched better in Gwinnett in 2019… small samples notwithstanding (they were both promoted at the same time).

Well if he’s below Anderson, why would I have him listed here? It’s simple: I suspect Davidson’s must-stay-a-starter barometer is currently lower than Anderson’s.

As a lefty who can pump it up in the mid-90s, and one who also has experience in the bullpen (his rookie and Single-A days), the Braves could use the Max Fried treatment on Davidson if they desired.

But remember, this the Not Likely Group, so the chances of seeing Davidson in an Atlanta Braves uniform in 2020 are probably slim to none.