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Atlanta Braves: the case for and against Madison Bumgarner

By Seth Carter

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - APRIL 13: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants riding a police horse carries the 2014 World Series Championship Flag prior to the start of their game against the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day at AT&T Park on April 13, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jeff Chiu-Pool/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - APRIL 13: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants riding a police horse carries the 2014 World Series Championship Flag prior to the start of their game against the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day at AT&T Park on April 13, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jeff Chiu-Pool/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 04: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field on June 04, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 04: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field on June 04, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

The case against Bumgarner

ROAD STATS

In 2019 Bumgarner was not good on the road. When he was pitching outside of the Bay, he had an ERA of 5.29 and a 1.41 WHIP. These alarming numbers make you wonder how he will fare when he no longer has the comfort of pitching in San Francisco.

WORKLOAD

Mad-Bum is a workhorse. Between 2011 and 2016 he averaged 212.5 innings per season. While that is something you want out of your ace, it is very possible Bumgarner’s best years could be in the rear-view mirror.

In the three subsequent seasons after 2016, his average dipped to 149.1 IP… though keeping him off a dirt bike might help.  Still, whoever signs Bumgarner might get an arm that has exceeded its shelf-life.

At age 30, Bumgarner has already logged 1,846 regular season innings.

Since 2000, 148 pitchers have recorded 1000+ innings by the time their age 31 season ended.  Bumgarner has the 17th most innings on this list (though others include names like Sabathia, King Felix, Kershaw, Buehrle, Greinke, Verlander, and Hamels).

TRENDING THE WRONG WAY

Bumgarner is coming off his worst single-season ERA at 3.90. He gave up 30 home runs for the first time in his career in 2019. Last season also marked the first time he pitched over 200 innings and won less than 10 games.

Conclusion

My personal stance is that Bumgarner would be a perfect fit for the Braves. This is an opportunity for the Braves to sign a prolific postseason pitcher with elite numbers over the course of his 11-year career.

While he would be a commanding leader on this staff, he is still only 30 years old. Projections have him signing for around $20 million per year at four to five years. It sounds like a bargain to me.

Next. The Braves are Committed now.... dark

What do you think? Is Madison Bumgarner worth a four or five-year commitment from the Braves? Is he the missing piece to get them back to the World Series?

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