Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: the possible impact of top free agents

Going to WAR

In terms of aggregate Wins Above Replacement, the Atlanta Braves’ ranked as follows as a team:

OFFENSE:

• On Fangraphs.com:  7th (26.9); Astros #1 at 40.8
• On Baseball-reference:  10th (23.2); Astros #1 at 34.7

PITCHING:

• On Fangraphs.com:  18th (12.3);  Rays #1 at 25.3
• On Baseball-reference:  14th (14.6);  Astros #1 at 26.0

DEFENSE:

• Fangraphs’ total defense score:  7th (46.2); Phillies were #1 at 71.3.
• On Baseball-reference:  15th (0.5 dWAR); Astros #1 at 6.8

Now let’s look at the potential impact of certain key free agents (who are or may be) available this off-season:

STARTING PITCHERS:

• Gerrit Cole:  7.4 fWAR; 6.9 bWAR
• Stephen Strasburg:  5.7 fWAR; 6.3 bWAR
• Yu Darvish:  2.6 fWAR; 3.3 bWAR
• Madison Bumgarner:  3.2; 2.5
• Hyun-Jin Ryu:  4.8; 5.1
• Zack Wheeler:  4.7; 3.5

POSITION PLAYERS:

• Yasmani Grandal:  5.2; 2.5
• Josh Donaldson:  4.9; 6.1
• Anthony Rendon:  7.0; 6.3
• Mike Moustakas:  2.8; 3.2

Here’s the point:  a single key-performing free agent can increase your team’s production by 10-20% by himself.

In the case of the Braves, this is doubly important since they could face the loss of one of these players.

As we’ve been saying, the loss of Josh Donaldson – if it happens – would mean that Atlanta would first have to make up that lost production (somehow) before expecting any possible gains from another source.

Clearly, as the numbers show us, the Braves have the most ground to gain from the pitching side… their ranks were significantly higher on the offensive side of the board.

Thus a key free agent – or a key trade – for a high-end starter could have a huge impact.

That’s what both the Nationals and Astros have seen.  It’s what the Braves could experience as well… if they are willing to do that.