Atlanta Braves potential offseason deals : Free agent outfielders

Avisaíl Garcia – R/R – Plays at 29

It took Avisail Garcia five years to become an overnight success. He flashed some power early on in Detroit but found himself in Chicago after only a year and a half in Detroit.

He had a breakout season in 2017, batting .330/.380/.506/.885, but struggled in 2018 batting only .236/.281/.438/.719.  At that point, the White Sox non-tendered him.

The Rays signed him to a one year $3.5M deal and saw Garcia rebound to a .282/.332/.464/.796 line, with 20 homers, 112 wRC+, and a .334 wOBA in 530 PA while providing 1.5 fWAR.

Early in his career, he had a significant L/R split, but as Fangraphs shows, he worked on that and now has a slight reverse split.

Garcia played right field most of his career, but I’d prefer his glove in left field. He has a strong arm, but I’m projecting Acuna in right and Garcia’s arm can’t match Acuna’s. His right-handed bat gets him on the list.

His defense is better than either of last year’s right fielders. He earned $3.5M this season with Tampa, and I don’t see that getting a big bump. The price-point of Markakis’ option year ($6 million) should be enough dollar-wise, and after bouncing around, I’m sure he’d like a three-year deal, so maybe three years and $17M would work.

A word about Castellanos

Someone’s going to ask why Nicholas Castellanos got left out. There are a couple of reasons, but primarily because he should play in the American League where we won’t need to own a glove that he can’t use well anyway.

The DH position fits Castellanos to a ‘T’.

• In 4401 innings over four seasons at 3rd base, he posted a –64 DRS & –25.8 UZR
• In 2578 innings in right field over three seasons he posted a –35 DRS & –24.9 UZR

That’s not just bad; it’s positively abysmal.

The man can hit, there’s no doubt about that. He has a strong slash line that translates to a bland  wRC+ of 111,130.121 for 2017-2019.

That’s not significantly better than Dickerson’s 116,115, 127, except Dickerson didn’t hit as many home runs, but Puig did.

Castellanos hit 26, 23, 27 in those three years while Puig hit 28, 23, 22.  I’m sure that without the bother of playing defense, Castellanos will hit better. His body will suffer less wear and stress, but for a National League team, signing a one-dimensional player is a mistake when there are multi-dimensional players around giving teams value on both sides of the ball.

Someone will give Castellanos a big contract, maybe that’s the Rangers or the Astros, but it won’t be the Atlanta Braves.

That’s a wrap

The free-agent outfielder class is very thin; that’s part of the reason I see them picking up Markakis’ option.  It’s also the reason we’ll see a bidding war for  Marcel Ozuna pushing his price above the three years and $39 minimum – $42M being the max I’d support.

Ozuna looks like a 2½ to 3 win player and that’s a desirable addition on any team. However, his WAR is all offense, and his injury history makes me wonder how long that will last.  It’s not a pretty swing, and it the bat could fall away by the end of that third year, sooner if he gets injured again.  I hope he takes his QO and stays in St Louis.

All of these players fit the profile described in my first post and fulfill the need of the Atlanta Braves for a corner outfielder, have solid to super defense and are at least 2% better without costing a fortune.

I left players with option decisions out because we don’t know if they’re available. I’ll put them in a separate post.  Tomorrow,  I’ll talk tradable pieces.