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A deeper look at the coming Atlanta Braves arbitration numbers for 2020

By Alan Carpenter

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 31: Johan Camargo #17 of the Atlanta Braves puts water on his face during the third inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 31: Johan Camargo #17 of the Atlanta Braves puts water on his face during the third inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 04: Adam Duvall #23 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after a two-run home run off Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals in the seventh inning in game two of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 04: Adam Duvall #23 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after a two-run home run off Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals in the seventh inning in game two of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

ADAM DUVALL

  • 2019 ML Salary:  $2.875 million
  • 2020 ARB 2 (2nd year) Estimate:  $3.8 million
  • Increase:  $925K
  • AGE:  31 (birthday September 4)
  • 2019 ATL numbers:  .267/.882 OPS with 10 HR, 19 RBI in 41 games, 130 PA
  • 2019 GWN numbers: .266/.965 OPS with 32 HR, 93 RBI in 101 games, 429 PA

Adam Duvall would not have received the full $2.875 million due to his extended minor league stint, so if this arbitration amount sticks, it’s liable to impact the bottom line by quite a bit.

Nonetheless, his value has been mostly restored thanks to a torrid season for the Stripers and key hitting for the Braves.  Right now he has to be penciled in as a corner OF for 2020.

EXPECTATION:  offer tendered; re-signs at $4.0 million.  Net increase approximately:  $3.2 million

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ

  • 2019 ML Salary:  $5.475 million
  • 2020 ARB 3 (3rd year of 4) Estimate:  $7.5 million
  • Increase:  $2.025 million
  • AGE:  just turned 28 this month
  • 2019 ATL numbers:  21 games, 117 innings, 4.54 ERA, 105K, 37BB
  • 2019 GWN numbers:  10 games, 51.1 innings, 3.86 ERA, 45K, 17BB

Will the real Mike Foltynewicz please stand up? And keep standing?  In the season’s first half, his ERA was 6.37.  In the second half it was 2.65.  And he started the year working back from an injury.

Those numbers make this a very intriguing and potentially confrontational arbitration case.

A $2 million increase is pretty steep, given the overall performance, though everyone could see the potential over the last couple of months.  But will that be repeated?  And how do you argue this into a contract?

EXPECTATION:  offer tendered; re-signs at …. let’s guess $7.2 million.  DIFFERENCE $1.725 million.

SHANE GREENE

  • 2019 ML Salary:  $4 million
  • 2020 ARB 3 (3rd/final year) Estimate:  $6.5 million
  • Increase:  $2.5 million
  • AGE:  will turn 31 in mid-November
  • 2019 numbers:  65 games, 63.1 innings, 2.30 ERA, 23 saves, 64K, 17BB

The problem for Shane Greene is that his 2019 numbers were kinda messed up by moving to Atlanta.  A 1.18 ERA jumped to a 4.01 and he only earned 1 save in the NL.

The Braves would like to have him back for one more year, no doubt, but they’d also rather not have to pay him like a closer unless he’s actually doing that job.

Thus the $6.5 million estimate is liable to be talked down… though probably not as far as the Braves would prefer. See and compare also to Folty’s numbers.

EXPECTATION:  offer tendered; re-signs at $6.0 million.  DIFFERENCE $2 million.  Actual difference from what Braves owed him in 2019:  approximately $5.35 million.

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