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Top of the rotation starter a must for Atlanta Braves

By Matthew Browning

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros celebrates retiring the side during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros celebrates retiring the side during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 10: Zack Wheeler #45 of the New York Mets pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field on September 10, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 10: Zack Wheeler #45 of the New York Mets pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field on September 10, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Tiers of Joy

For those who are not familiar, according to Fangraphs, a player with a WAR between three and four is a “good player,” a player between four and five is “an all-star,” a player between five and six is “an MVP,” and six plus is “a superstar.”

To give context, Soroka had a WAR of 5.6, while Fried had a WAR of 2.9. The 2018 version of Foltynewicz had a WAR of 3.9.

The Astros’ trio are all-star players or higher. Gerrit Cole had a 7.4 WAR, Justin Verlander 6.4 and Zach Greinke 5.4.

Washington’s big three also were all-star players or higher. Max Scherzer’s WAR was 6.5, Stephen Strasburg’s 5.7 and Patrick Corbin’s 4.8.

The upcoming free agent market features likely two of the six players just mentioned. Cole hits free agency with a possible $300 million dollar contract coming. Strasburg has an opt-out in his contract and it seems likely he will decline it and becoming a free agent.

First and foremost, both of these players will command a salary and length of contract way too high for the Braves, who tend to look for shorter contracts.

Secondly, both of these guys are from California, so the Dodgers, Angels and perhaps the Padres (Strasburg’s hometown) will be the likely suitors.

So that leaves three players who had a WAR of four or higher last season that the Braves might look at.

Additional Options

Hyun-Jin Ryu, who had a WAR of 4.8 for the Dodgers, was perhaps the National League’s best pitcher in the first half of the season, as he went 10-2 with a 1.73 ERA.

He cooled off slightly in the second half, but is still in line for a nice payday this offseason.

Ryu has ties to the Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, who was with the Dodgers in 2016 and 2017, but there is a considerable injury risk for Ryu, who after missing the entire 2015 season, has only started 25 games or more twice.

The next candidate is the Georgia-born Zack Wheeler, whose WAR was 4.7 last season with the Mets.

Wheeler finished 11-8, with a 3.96 ERA in 2019, but over his past two seasons went 23-15 with a 3.62 ERA.

To me, Wheeler seems like the perfect change-of-scenery guy. Get out of the New York, which had one of the worst defenses in the league and go home to one of the best defenses in the league.

Can Wheeler be an elite arm that helps Soroka atop the rotation? It would not surprise me.

Lastly is Jake Odorizzi, who made the All-Star team with the Minnesota Twins last season.

He had a WAR of 4.3 and went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA, although his second half numbers (5-3, 3.97) were not quite as good as the first half.

Odorizzi’s 2019 season seems like a fluke to me, as he was just 47-48 with 4.13 ERA and an average WAR of 1.4 in his seven previous seasons.

Thar Be Giants

There is one notable omission from this list and that is Madison Bumgarner, who had a WAR of 3.2 last season in 34 starts, which was the first time in three years he had started more than 21 games in a season.

Bumgarner is certainly intriguing for two reasons: 1.) He would be coming home as he is from North Carolina and there have been multiple reports that he would like to pitch closer to home. 2.) At age 30, Bumgarner is still in his prime and maybe pitching in Atlanta would give him some rejuvenation.

Despite the numbers for this exercise, Bumgarner would be an interesting option.

Now let’s examine the possible trade targets this offseason.

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