Atlanta Braves: 3 takeaways from a bad Game 1 against the Cardinals

2.  Little Things Mean a Lot

Acuna’s admired… single.  Yes – he did it again.  Francisco Cervelli‘s check-swing-called-third-strike-on-appeal.  Multiple balls just hit fair – a couple on an unguarded foul line.

The biggest ‘little thing’ may have been the toe cleat under Paul Goldschmidt‘s left shoe.  Had that lost contact (and it may have) with first base, then the Braves might have tied it up in the 9th with just 1 out.

But the Atlanta Braves can’t simply hope that these “little things” all turn up their way on Friday… they will have to make their own luck and do their own tasks completely right.

If pre-game jitters or adrenaline or anything like that was contributing to poor play on Thursday, Atlanta should at least have that back under control since the reality of facing the best NL pitcher since the All-Star break will have slapped them in the face by the morning.

1.  Beating Jack Flaherty

The Atlanta Braves have a pre-game ritual … a ‘Roll Call’.  Jayson Stark talked about it in TheAthletic on Wednesday, but in short, it’s a declaration thing run by the base coaches:

“Are you a player or are you a play-uh”

It’s like a challenge to the play-ers to step it up.  And on Friday… all play-uhs had better be ready.

I imagine they will be:  this 2019 Braves team has had big games all year, and they have always ‘shown up’ to play them – win or lose.

On Friday they face Jack Flaherty – he of the 1.00 ERA since mid-July.

Here’s the things to watch for:

• 1st/2nd inning ERAs:  1.36 for the year.  That needs to change.
• 3rd inning:  4.13 ERA.
• 5th inning:  5.90 ERA.
• He actually gets tougher on hitters when the leverage situation increases... that’s the trait of ace pitchers: they bear down and work harder when you need the crucial hit.
• Oddly, having a runner on 2nd base behind him makes hitters better (.263 average; .912 OPS)
• 3-hole hitters (paging Mr Freeman) have a 1.019 OPS.  Leadoff hitters (paging Mr. Acuna) have an .852 OPS.  The rest of the lineup?  Doesn’t fare well… this also must change.

Atlanta is going to have to go into their Trevor Bauer/Max Scherzer/Jacob deGrom mode of spoiling pitches, lengthening innings, and generally being disruptive to Flaherty as much as humanly possible.

They must get to him.  They must get him out of the game early.  That’s a lot easier said than done, but if not, it’s gonna be a long day.

There are actually 2 possible strategies… it will be interesting to see which is employed.

• Do the ‘spoiler’ ploy noted above, or
• Go after 1st pitches.  Check these splits:
  • FIRST PITCH:  Hitters are hitting .300 with a .920 OPS (all hitters!)
  • 1-0 COUNTS:  Hitters are hitting .364 with a 1.273 OPS
  • 0-1 COUNTS:  .281, .890 OPS
  • Any other counts… things get worse quickly

Flaherty is better at home than on the road… so there’s another factor.

However you cut it, Atlanta must come in prepared, determined, and … loose.  Like they still are ready to do damage.  They do play better on Fridays.

It’s certainly possible to beat this club.  The Atlanta Braves need to prove it to themselves.  TBS Network at 4:30PM.