3 compelling reasons the Atlanta Braves could win the World Series
By Clint Manry
#3. One of the best at hitting high velocity
You might’ve noticed this from watching the team play all season long, but Atlanta Braves hitters have been excellent against high-velocity pitching in 2019.
Last week, Sam Miller — a columnist for ESPN.com — investigated teams’ results in hitting high velocity, specifically pitches thrown 95 mph or higher.
In his research, he combined five-team measurements (wOBA, chase rate, whiff rate, pull rate, and isolated power) and then created a cumulative ranking for each team in the majors.
Here are Miller’s rankings, by relative performance (using the five measurements above) of each of the probable playoff teams at the time:
- 1. Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2. Minnesota Twins
- 3. St. Louis Cardinals
- 4. Washington Nationals
- 5. Atlanta Braves
- 6. Milwaukee Brewers
- 7. New York Yankees
- 8. Chicago Cubs
- 9. Cleveland Indians
- 10. Oakland Athletics
- 11. Houston Astros
- 12. Tampa Bay Rays
Using more standard statistics, here’s how the Atlanta Braves rank amongst all current playoff contenders in batting average, wOBA, slugging-percentage, and average exit velocity, versus all types of fastballs that are thrown 95 mph or higher in 2019 (via Baseball Savant).
| Stat | Rate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Batting average | .258 | 4th |
| wOBA | .346 | 4th |
| SLG% | .465 | 3rd |
| Avg. exit velo | 89.7 mph | 3rd |
The Braves success or failure versus high-velocity pitching will be crucial in the 2019 playoffs and World Series. The playoff pool is filled with high-velo pitchers, known for their 95+ mph fastballs.
Just look at a few possible playoff matchups for the Braves and how these flamethrowing hurlers have fared during the 2019 season when throwing pitches 95 mph+ (I limited this to just starting pitchers and more well-known guys for the purpose of time):
(BAA= Batting Average Against)
- *STL, Jack Flaherty – .226 BAA
- LAD, Walker Buehler. – .203 BAA
- WAS, Stephen Strasburg – .226 BAA
- WAS, Max Scherzer – .127 BAA
- HOU, Justin Verlander – .154 BAA
- *HOU, Gerrit Cole – .170 BAA
- NYY, Luis Severino – .154 BAA
*On Tuesday night, Flaherty lost a no-hit bid in the 7th inning of the Cards’ 19-inning loss — another illustration of how dominant he’s been. His numbers since July 7: 99.1 IP, 1.00 ERA, 124 K, 23 BB
*Also on Tuesday night, Cole wrapped up his 8th-straight double-digit strikeout game — a team record. Cole now has 316 strikeouts in 2019, the most in a single season since Randy Johnson in 2002 (per ESPN.com).
It’s a good thing the Braves have been one of the best when it comes to hitting high-velo pitches, as they will most likely see a substantial amount of them in the playoffs.
Guys like Freddie Freeman (.340 BA vs. 95+) and Josh Donaldson (.318 BA), who are successful against high velocity, will be critical in this year’s bid for a World Series.