The five most important Atlanta Braves home runs of 2019
By Clint Manry
#5. You can only keep a good man down so long!
Sunday, July 14 — @ San Diego Padres
WPA: +0.42
The situation: With Mike Soroka just exiting the game after pitching a beauty versus the San Diego Padres (7 IP, 0 R, 6 H, BB, 9 K), Freddie Freeman came to bat in the 8th after Matt Joyce and Ronald Acuna Jr. hit back-to-back singles.
The Braves were threatening and looking to put the game’s first runs on the board, as the score was still 0-0. With Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson both striking out in the inning, there were two away.
Padres’ reliever Trey Wingenter tried to fire a 95 mph fastball past Freeman, but Freddie was sitting on it and looking to pounce:
(Skip to 4:50 mark to see Freddie’s HR)
The homer traveled 418 feet and at a speed of 109.5 mph. Freeman’s homer not only helped win the game for the Braves, but gave Soroka his 10th win of the season.
Why it was awesome: This wasn’t your classic home run to save the game, though it was still a big swing in win expectancy for the Braves. When Freeman came to the plate, the Braves had a 50% chance to win. When Freddie crossed the plate after his home run trot…? That switched to a 92% chance.
Also, before that home run, Freeman was 0-for-3 in the game, which may not seem like a big deal, but at the time it very much was. Leading up to that game, Freeman was struggling like something fierce.
From July 1 to July 13 (the day before his go-ahead HR), Freeman was hitting just .194, hitless in his last nine at-bats. So when he hit that home run at 0-3 on the day, he hadn’t recorded a hit in 12 ABs… enough to make Freddie go crazy, I’m sure.
Plus, that win was part of the Braves’ 4-game win streak to open up the 2nd half of the season. That much was great, but they would fall into a stretch of bad luck, losing 6 of their next 8 in that same week.