Atlanta Braves: Playoff odds, magic numbers, and remaining schedule

Remaining Schedule and Predictions

We’ve already written a couple of articles on the Atlanta Braves schedule down the stretch, and in particular, these next couple of weeks.

After this weekend series with the Mets they have a weird travel schedule where they’ll go to Colorado for an afternoon game and then go to Toronto for two games before coming home to play the White Sox on Friday.

Even though those are teams the Braves should beat, who knows how that travel schedule will affect them.

If they can go 7-3 over that 10 game stretch before facing the Nats, you have to figure they’ll be in pretty good shape going into that series — at least maintaining their current six-game lead.

But then they have back-to-back four-game series with the Nats and Phillies, which they really just need to split.

And then they have back-to-back three-game series with the Nats and Mets, which they really just can’t lose.

Let’s be conservative and say they go 6-8 over that difficult stretch, splitting both four-game series and losing both three-game series.

That still puts them in a pretty good place. I think at worst at that point their lead would be down the three games with eight games to play.

To finish the season, they have three with the Giants, two with the Royals, and three with the Mets. If they go 5-3 in that stretch the Nats would have to with their last eight games.

If things played out like that, the Atlanta Braves would finish the regular season 96-66. The Nationals would have to go 25-9 down the stretch to tie the Braves.

That’s certainly possible the way they are playing, but I think I was also being conservative with the number of wins the Braves get the rest of the season.

And the Nationals schedule is probably a little more difficult down the stretch with three against Minnesota and Cleveland, and three against the Cardinals — all teams fighting for a postseason spot.