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Atlanta Braves fans want a closer: Here’s data to help you pick one

By Fred Owens

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 05: The Atlanta Braves warm up during bullpen prior to Game Two of the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 05: The Atlanta Braves warm up during bullpen prior to Game Two of the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
Brad  Hand fits the description of the closer the Atlanta Braves need. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Clean innings and meltdown innings

Noting irks fans more than a reliever that immediately puts runners on base, particularly in a save situation. Fangraphs provides a metric for shutdown and meltdown innings; a complex calculation designed to replace the save.

". . .(the metrics) answer a simple question: did a relief pitcher help or hinder his team’s chances of winning a game? If they improved their team’s chances of winning by a certain amount, they get a Shutdown. If they (made it worse) certain amount, they get a Meltdown."

That’s all very nice, but I wanted something simpler.

Last year I introduced my no-hit innings pitched statistic. Unlike SD/MD I look for the number of innings a pitcher didn’t allow a hit or walk more than one batter, then set it as a percentage of innings pitched.

Related Story. Low profile adds?. light

For those who did complex stats, the table below shows the Fangraphs SD/MD as a percentage of their relief innings as well as my NHIP metric. All of the pitchers included pitched a similar number of innings.

All statistics derived from or come directly from Fangraphs.

Player ID NHIP/IP MD/IP SD/IP Notes
9073 49% 7.0% 69.8%
10756 53% 11.1% 58.3%
12076 34% 7.1% 52.0% Allows base runners but usually gets out of trouble
6661 65% 5.2% 49.1%
9111 57% 7.2% 57.6%
8048 57% 7.1% 68.6%
11710 46% 6.1% 51.0%
7196 55% 15.2% 48.5% Solid but can let things get out of hand
6986 44% 17.4% 29.8%
12910 42% 6.1% 45.5%
10430 44% 18.3% 33.9%
11682 34% 15.9% 35.7%

I added a couple of hot takes on the data. FG looks as every inning so the percentages won’t match, but when they are close, it’s a good thing.

For comparison’s sake, Luke Jackson has had one clean inning in eight July outings. He’s had 12 clean innings in 45 appearances this year, so in 26 percent of his outings this year he hasn’t allowed a hit or a walk.

But if you use my NHIP/IP method he has 14 such outings, which is good for 31 percent.

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