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Does Kevin Gausman’s start tonight determine Atlanta Braves trade direction?

By Alan Carpenter

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 23: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the third inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on May 23, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 23: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the third inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on May 23, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /
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WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 13: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of a spring training baseball game at Fitteam Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 13, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The Nationals defeated the Braves 8-4. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 13: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of a spring training baseball game at Fitteam Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 13, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The Nationals defeated the Braves 8-4. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

The Change-ups

What has changed is that while Gausman had great success in 2018 after joining the Braves, he opted to concentrate on just 2 pitch types – fastball and splitter – in 2019.

As a starting pitcher, if you give hitters just 2 choices, they’re going to be guessing right half the time… and more so when one of the choices is used 2/3rds (or more) of the time.

Truth be told, it was really only the fastball that was coming.

David O’Brien (TheAthletic, subscription required) picks up the meat of the story:

"What stood out about Gausman’s performance this season, other than the general mediocrity, was his almost total reliance on variations of his fastball. Nothing off-speed. Nothing with horizontal movement. For some reason, he all but stopped throwing the slider. This meant he was relying almost entirely on up-and-down movement on pitches, and with little variance in speed. Hitters feasted."

“Feasting”?  Yeah… hitters are sitting on Gausman’s fastball and hitting it at a .287 clip this season… good for a 131 wRC+ (runs created score).

As a point of comparison, these hitters have wRC+ marks between 128 and 134 this season:

Now recognize that Gausman was effectively facing an entire lineup of Josh Donaldsons (or LeMahieus or Torres, etc.) every time he pitched this season… because his fastball became just an ordinary offering.

As many have noted in recent years, the velocity is irrelevant if you are throwing the same thing to batters over and over and over again.

In a nutshell, that’s why the Braves had to find a way to get him fixed.  The declared foot injury was a convenient vehicle to do so.

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