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ESPN leaves Atlanta Braves hanging — only two prospects in top 50

By Clint Manry |
BARNSLEY, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Editor Andrew Harrod previews an early version of the front page of the latest edition of the Barnsley Chronicle newsroom on September 19, 2018 in Barnsley, England. Surrounded by a number of smaller villages, the residents of Barnsley have been served by weekly newspaper "The Barnsley Chronicle" for over 160 years. The latest newspaper circulation figures, covering 2017, listed a readership of 19,855 copies per week. Launched in 1858, the Barnsley Chronicle is one of the last privately-owned weekly newspapers in the country, producing each copy in house with their own journalists, design team and full printing press. Owned and operated by the Hewitt family since 1923, it is the largest circulating weekly newspaper in Yorkshire, with profits boosted by off-shoot companies such as military history publishers Pen and Sword and go-kart company Tyke Racing, operating under the Acredula Group. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
BARNSLEY, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Editor Andrew Harrod previews an early version of the front page of the latest edition of the Barnsley Chronicle newsroom on September 19, 2018 in Barnsley, England. Surrounded by a number of smaller villages, the residents of Barnsley have been served by weekly newspaper "The Barnsley Chronicle" for over 160 years. The latest newspaper circulation figures, covering 2017, listed a readership of 19,855 copies per week. Launched in 1858, the Barnsley Chronicle is one of the last privately-owned weekly newspapers in the country, producing each copy in house with their own journalists, design team and full printing press. Owned and operated by the Hewitt family since 1923, it is the largest circulating weekly newspaper in Yorkshire, with profits boosted by off-shoot companies such as military history publishers Pen and Sword and go-kart company Tyke Racing, operating under the Acredula Group. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
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(Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images)
(Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images) /

The baseball industry has adjusted their prospect lists and the Atlanta Braves may be feeling a bit neglected with ESPN’s updated rankings.

The talent currently in the Atlanta Braves Minor League system has been well documented for quite some time now.

This past winter, the Atlanta Braves were ranked No. 2 by MLB Pipeline, coming in right behind the San Diego Padres in terms of overall best farm systems.

In March of 2018, MiLB.com ranked the Atlanta Braves as the top system, when the hype surrounding still-a-minor leaguer, Ronald Acuna Jr., was at its highest.

In 2017, the Atlanta Braves were ranked No. 2 as well, according to a list by Bleacher Report, in September of that season. They also had the Braves No. 1 in 2016.

So obviously, the trend has been pretty consistent, at least for the last four years. And we know the Atlanta Braves investment into acquiring top prospects has in fact been going on longer than that.

But on Thursday, ESPN’s Senior Writer and prospect analyst, Keith Law, sang a bit of a different tune with his Midseason Top-50 Prospect Update. He ranked just two Atlanta Braves minor leaguers in his list of 50:

Now clearly, no ranking is perfect. It would be quite unreasonable to anticipate all prospect lists to fit our biased opinions, no matter how much we attempt to leave out such notions.

But c’mon!

And frankly, after doing a bit more digging, it’s not just Law that has, for lack of a better word, shortchanged the Atlanta Braves.

There are other writers and sites that have released prospect rankings that don’t quite line up with the common narration that we’ve been acquainted with regarding the Atlanta Braves farm system.

It’s been generally accepted that the Braves have an elite minor league group, right?

But to say that there are only two players in the Atlanta Braves system currently worthy of a top 50 ranking is a bit erroneous, at the very least.

Having said that, before we make a case as to which Atlanta Braves prospects were incorrectly left off Law’s list, perhaps we should look at an assortment of other prospect rankings.

Maybe I’m just being too much of an Atlanta Braves homer?

(Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
(Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images) /

Other prospect lists

I took some time to check out several other sites, as I can definitely be guilty of simply relying on certain locations. We all have our go-to websites and blogs that we depend on when choosing a destination to gain more knowledge on a certain subject.

But for this exercise, a mixture of opinions is required, being that we need to find out whether or not Law’s particular list is an unfair assessment of the Atlanta Braves and their farm system.

I retrieved four different prospect rankings for the 2019 season, three of them have been recently updated as a midseason update while one is a pre-2019 list.

Also worth noting, these four lists are not specifically top 50 rankings. MLB Pipeline is a top 100; THE BOARD! is actually a top 200; Baseball Prospectus is a top 100; and Prospects Live is a top 100.

The size of the list obviously shouldn’t matter. Where a player ranks is where he ranks. But to prevent any misconceptions, just know that Law’s list is the only list of 50 in this activity.

MLB PIPELINE

As you see, MLB Pipeline has four Atlanta Braves prospects in their top 50.

To me, this is the best ranking out of the bunch, as the list properly rewards Waters for his outstanding play in Mississippi this season, after only playing 30 games in High-A in 2018.

Anderson is another player that deserves some quality recognition, as he’s working on his fourth year in the Braves organization and has never finished a season with an ERA over 3.74. He’s also finished with at least 9 strikeouts per nine in all but one season during his tenure as a pro pitcher.

Kyle Wright and Christian Pache are a given, though Wright has cooled a bit this season, allowing a few more home runs than usual (8 HR in 64 IP).

Even so, the righty is excellent in terms of preventing walks, running a 2.5 BB/9 right now.

THE BOARD! (Fangraphs)

  • OF, Christian Pache (#14)
  • SP, Ian Anderson (#33)
  • SP, Kyle Wright (#42)
  • C, William Contreras (#45)

Again, four inside the first 50, though Fangraphs is showing some extra love with Contreras at No. 45. Their high-ranking of the young catcher is interesting, if a little aggressive, but I think he’s definitely capable of becoming such a player.

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS

Wow, where to begin? First of all, where the heck is Pache? It’s almost laughable that they don’t have him as a top 20 prospect, let alone inside the top 50 — they have Pache ranked at No. 62.

There’s just so much wrong with this list, and when you look even further into it, it just gets worse:

Law didn’t consider any players that are currently on a big league roster, so there’s going to be a bit of a difference with Baseball Prospectus’ list (meaning players may rank a tad lower than they should, due to a larger player pool).

PROSPECTS LIVE

  • OF, Drew Waters (#27)
  • OF, Christian Pache (#29)

Prospects Live’s list is compelling. Not only is Waters currently ranked ahead of Pache (their list was updated this month), but he was ranked ahead even before the season (Waters was No. 49 while Pache was No. 66).

Further down the list, they ranked Ian Anderson at No. 52, up two spots from the beginning of 2019.

I would agree Waters has played a bit better than Pache this season, but I’m not sure if I’m ready to say Waters is the better prospect yet. If he keeps it up, then yeah, sure.

So overall, out of the four lists that I’ve included, two of them have four Braves’ prospects in the top 50 and two, like Law’s rankings, have just two listed.

(Photo by Petersen/Getty Images)
(Photo by Petersen/Getty Images) /

MLB Pipeline has it right

As I mentioned earlier, MLB Pipeline (which is a part of MLB.com) has the most accurate ranking. I would probably rank Waters a little higher than No. 44, but for the most part, the players they have listed are who I would list in a top 50 ranking.

The hype regarding Waters may seem a bit excessive to some, but when considering just how great he is this season despite being nowhere near his ceiling (plate-discipline wise) — he deserves every bit of the hype.

Waters’ Current 2019 Season

(ranking amongst Southern League hitters)

  • .338 batting average (1st)
  • .380 OBP (t-5th)
  • .896 OPS (3rd)
  • 55 runs (1st)
  • 118 hits (1st)
  • 29 doubles (1st)
  • 9 triples (1st)
  • 180 total bases (1st)

We already know how great Pache, Wright, and Anderson have been in their young pro careers. MLB Pipeline does a nice job, ranking them all in the top 30, also keeping them rather close together at Nos. 14, 25, and 26 respectively.

The only Atlanta Braves prospect that I would add to the top 50 — though there are probably several right on the brink of being ready — is Mississippi starting pitcher Kyle Muller (click here for scouting report).

Like Anderson, Muller has excelled at every level of the minors since his pro career began in 2016. At 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds, the Atlanta Braves No. 8 prospect features a mid-90s MPH fastball and a fantastic slider, as well as two other above-average pitches (curveball and changeup).

Muller and Anderson’s career paths are very akin, just like their draft positions — in the 2016 MLB Draft, the Atlanta Braves selected Anderson in the 1st round while also selecting Muller in the 2nd round.

As good as Anderson has been, Muller has been right there with him:

TWO SIMILAR CAREERS 

One has to think Muller will soon join a top 50 list. He’s had some recent struggles with walks, currently walking over 5 batters per nine this season (after walking over 6 per nine in the Arizona Fall League last year).

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Final thoughts

The fact that the Atlanta Braves were underrepresented in Law’s most recent prospect rankings really shouldn’t carry much weight, as the only thing that matters is how each team’s prospects perform once on the big league roster.

Championships aren’t won playing on a Triple or Double-A team.

While I disagree with this specific assessment by Law, I admit that I thoroughly enjoy his writing and analysis on ESPN.com.

Law was part of a very small group that helped start the data revolution MLB currently is in, sharing works by Bill James and the original architects of numerous advanced statistics. And Law himself has worked in baseball — once in the front office for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Law and Talks at Google put together an awesome discussion in August of 2017, where they talked about various subjects, including his then-new book, Smart Baseball.

It seemed that Law overrated the most recent draft picks from last month, including numerous 2019 draftees who have hardly played professional baseball; and as a result, several players got pushed back.

But what do I know?

It’s just hard to fathom that a top 3 farm system only has two current prospects ranked in the top 50 of a list, especially a system that has been this elite for the last several years.

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What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comment section below!

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