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The Atlanta Braves’ Sean Newcomb and His New Role

By Clint Manry

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 7: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves heads to the dugout after warming up for the game against the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park on April 7, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 7: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves heads to the dugout after warming up for the game against the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park on April 7, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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Pitch Usage

We’ll concede up front that the next exercise Clemens creates is not as cut-and-dried as our look at velocity decline on the previous page. The second list he makes up can be attributed towards many different things, especially team philosophy and strategy.

But it does coincide with the first exercise in that it could be a potential pitcher-characteristic to examine.

So for this next exercise, Clemens revises his first list and cuts out all starting pitchers who throw their top two pitches less than 80% of the time, finishing with a list of seven pitchers.

Here’s the new list, with it ordered by how frequently each pitcher throws their top-2 pitches this season. Also included is their average fastball velocity drop from earlier (rates from May 23):

  1. Brad Keller.               -1.1 MPH (97.5%)
  2. Gregory Soto           -1.2 MPH (95.6%)
  3. Luis Castillo.            -1.3 MPH (86.1%)
  4. Jonathan Loaisiga  -1.0 MPH (84.0%)
  5. Aaron Nola.              -1.5 MPH (81.6%)
  6. Sean Newcomb       -1.4 MPH (81.2%)
  7. Nick Pivetta.             -1.2 MPH (81.1%)

According to Clemens, this particular exercise “does a good job of weeding out starters with three good pitches”, which is an important factor, being that most successful and longtime starting pitchers have more than just two or three offerings.

This is also a very logical analysis, as Clemens notes, these are seven pitchers who rely heavily on two pitches and lose fastball velocity throughout their starts; a perfect example of a pitcher that may serve well in the bullpen.

Here’s Clemens’ thoughts on Newcomb, Keller and Loaisiga:

"All three boast excellent stuff with little variety, and none of them are so good as starters that they’re too valuable to move over. In fact, were it not for the unique circumstances Keller and Loaisiga find themselves in, all three of these conversions might have happened already."

Well look at there. Newcomb has already converted, at least for right now. Though, once again, Nola isn’t going anywhere anytime soon; and I don’t see Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo being pushed to the ‘pen either.

Castillo is another exception and has been a very productive pitcher in the big leagues, thanks to a devastating changeup.

The 26-year-old from the Dominican Republic has made 57 career starts since his rookie season in 2017, and is running a career ERA of 3.59 with 9.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. In 2017 he finished 8th in the NL Rookie of the Year running.

Like I said, these exercises aren’t perfect.

But as far as it goes for Newcomb, this analysis does a great job of illustrating  some specific aspects of his game that could be associated with the Braves decision to move him to the bullpen.

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