Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Notes with a quarter of the season done
A Minor Rant
That chart of MLB ERA leaders?
- Everybody in the Top 10 has an ERA under 2.00.
- Every one of them have a FIP above 2.18 (all but 2 are above 2.44).
- Every one of them has an expected FIP score above 2.45* (all but 2 are above 3.05).
* – depends on Ryu’s new score after Sunday’s gem.
For those coming in late, I don’t mind advanced stats at all – heck, I’m an engineer by trade: numbers are part of the deal. But I really despise the FIP stat.
Why? Because when you try to exclude defense as a factor, you exclude 2/3rds of the entire game. It gives no credit at all for pitchers who deceive hitters and induce weak contact (Soroka and Fried both take advantage of this).
Even more, now that teams are shifting their defenses more and more, getting strikeouts becomes less important since the defense is more likely to make a play on a batted ball that’s hit into the shift.
What I’d rather see is a stat that credits batted ball exit velocity, off-center hits, pop-ups, and negative launch angle in a reasonable manner. The technology now exists for this to happen, and it would provide a better picture of the effectiveness of pitchers.
Strikeouts are indeed the best outcome for a hitter-batter event – and should be credited as such. Pop-ups are probably next, followed by weak grounders… even if the batter reaches base (because placement and luck can be factors).
By the same token, pitchers can get lucky while still getting outs. Ronald Acuna ripped a line drive to left field on Sunday measured at 111 mph… but it was right at the Arizona left fielder. Since there’s ratings on how often such things fall as hits, those percentages should be factored in as well.
Maybe someday that will happen to my satisfaction. Or maybe… we already have one that incorporates all of this.
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It’s called the ‘Earned Run Average’.