Atlanta Braves hot or not update: Bullpen woes and cold bats

MIAMI, FL - MAY 03: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves is ejected from the game by umpire Jeff Nelson #45 after throwing at Jose Urena #62 of the Miami Marlins in the second inning at Marlins Park on May 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - MAY 03: Kevin Gausman #45 of the Atlanta Braves is ejected from the game by umpire Jeff Nelson #45 after throwing at Jose Urena #62 of the Miami Marlins in the second inning at Marlins Park on May 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 08: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves reacts to his RBI single to score Ozzie Albies #1, to trail 5-4 to the Los Angeles Dodgers, during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on May 08, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves first pitch masters and mistakes

Braves fans know Freddie Freeman as a notorious first pitch hitter.

For his career, Freeman hits .410/.412/.713/1.126, including five triples, 73 doubles, and 45 home runs and Josh Donaldson -.373/.385/.697/1.081, 32 doubles and 32 homers – isn’t far behind that.

Players who pinch hit a lot like Matt Joyce and Charlie Culberson, tend to swing at a lot of first pitches and both slash lines that reflect success.

(Statistics from Fangraphs’ splits tool and each player’s BBR splits page)

Player FP BA H/AB  Other counts H/AB
Charlie Culberson .500 2-4 .375 3-9
Johan Camargo .444 4-9 .212 18-73
Tyler Flowers .429 3-7 .267 19-67
Ozzie Albies .348 8-23 .277 46-163
Ender Inciarte .333 4-12 .214 25-110
Josh Donaldson .313 5-16 .250 5-16
Matthew Joyce .286 2-7 .444 4-11
Ronald Acuna Jr. .286 4-14 .283 37-133
Freddie Freeman .267 4-15 .303 44-147
Nick Markakis .182 2-11 .316 39-128
Brian McCann .167 1-7 .314 17-57
Dansby Swanson .154 2-13 .272 33-127

This year Freeman has solid numbers, but he’s not destroying the ball and crushing pitcher’s dreams on the first pitch as often as in the past.  The most likely cause is lineup construction; pitchers would rather face Acuna than Freeman, and thus don’t necessarily ‘need’ to get ahead on the 1st pitch.

Ozzie, Ender, and Flowers have a sample size big enough to indicate they hit for a higher average on the first pitch. Camargo is struggling in general but first pitch swinging he’s done a lot better.

Markakis and Swanson shouldn’t swing at first pitches; it goes against the way they were taught to play the game. McCann usually hits well on the first pitch – .314/.326/.522/848 – but so far he’s not doing well when he swings early.

That was the week that was

In spite of a friendly and giving Marlins team, this week wasn’t a great one for the bats.

Josh Donaldson started to find the groove he lost when he missed those games to protect a strained right calf muscle, and Acuña started to warm up in the last game of the Dodger series.

Overall Hot PA AVG OBP SLG OPS BACON 
Brian McCann 16 .286 .313 .571 .884 .333
Freddie Freeman 31 .267 .290 .533 .824 .308
Nick Markakis 28 .182 .357 .455 .812 .190
Matt Joyce 8 .286 .375 .429 .804 .333
Josh Donaldson 29 .259 .310 .481 .792 .412
Ronald Acuna Jr. 24 .292 .292 .458 .750 .389
Overall Not PA AVG OBP SLG OPS BACON
Ozzie Albies 34 .235 .235 .353 .588 .276
Dansby Swanson 28 .240 .321 .240 .561 .300
Ender Inciarte 23 .158 .304 .211 .515 .176
Charlie Culberson 6 .200 .167 .200 .367 .200
Johan Camargo 10 .111 .200 .111 .311 .125
Tyler Flowers 12 .083 .083 .083 .167 .200
Team (nonpitchers) 249 .228 .277 .377 .654 .283

If you said at anytime last week Swanson, Acuña, or anyone else was unlucky, you were correct.

StatCast shows everyone but McCann and Donaldson were to one degree or another, unlucky not to get a better result.

BBE player ba xba slg xslg woba xwoba EV LA
8 McCann .429 .241 1.000 .549 .520 .299 90.5 9.9
15 Acuna Jr. .400 .445 .600 .863 .429 .552 94.3 14.1
5 Joyce .400 .430 .600 .692 .425 .481 87.2 18.0
15 Donaldson .400 .327 .600 .513 .425 .360 90.6 21.2
22 Freeman .318 .387 .682 .824 .418 .507 91.2 11.8
17 Markakis .235 .338 .588 .606 .342 .401 91.9 5.7
18 Swanson .333 .353 .333 .562 .293 .387 90.5 12.2
27 Albies .259 .282 .370 .408 .271 .294 85.6 20.0
15 Inciarte .200 .258 .267 .332 .200 .252 83.2 16.8
5 Culberson .250 .401 .250 .448 .176 .309 81.7 2.4
5 Flowers .200 .162 .200 .182 .176 .145 91.4 -3.0
8 Camargo .125 .129 .125 .163 .110 .129 84.2 17.5
                   
  Unlucky                
  Lucky                

McCann’s sample size skews his good fortune a bit, while Donaldson’s fight to regain form because he sat with that injury fits their numbers.

StatCast confirmed Flowers awful week at the plate and Camargo’s continued inability to find his rhythm on either side of the dish.

Camargo needs to get consistent playing time, or he may never get his swing back.  With Austin Riley raking at Gwinnett and playing some outfield, it might be time to exercise Camargo’s option year and bring Riley up.

Camargo’s primarily been Donaldson’s backup at third and left field when we face a left-handed pitcher.

Riley is capable of doing both jobs, and Culberson can fill in at second or short in an emergency. He could use the at bats as well, but he has no options left.

Before everyone screams at me for suggesting it, take a look at his numbers and tell me you think they’ll get better sitting on the bench or playing two days a week.  He’s hitting worse than Inciarte at the moment, and without Ender, there’s no backup center fielder on the roster.