Atlanta Braves hot or not update: Bullpen woes and cold bats
By Fred Owens
Atlanta Braves first pitch masters and mistakes
Braves fans know Freddie Freeman as a notorious first pitch hitter.
For his career, Freeman hits .410/.412/.713/1.126, including five triples, 73 doubles, and 45 home runs and Josh Donaldson -.373/.385/.697/1.081, 32 doubles and 32 homers – isn’t far behind that.
Players who pinch hit a lot like Matt Joyce and Charlie Culberson, tend to swing at a lot of first pitches and both slash lines that reflect success.
(Statistics from Fangraphs’ splits tool and each player’s BBR splits page)
Player | FP BA | H/AB | Other counts | H/AB |
Charlie Culberson | .500 | 2-4 | .375 | 3-9 |
Johan Camargo | .444 | 4-9 | .212 | 18-73 |
Tyler Flowers | .429 | 3-7 | .267 | 19-67 |
Ozzie Albies | .348 | 8-23 | .277 | 46-163 |
Ender Inciarte | .333 | 4-12 | .214 | 25-110 |
Josh Donaldson | .313 | 5-16 | .250 | 5-16 |
Matthew Joyce | .286 | 2-7 | .444 | 4-11 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | .286 | 4-14 | .283 | 37-133 |
Freddie Freeman | .267 | 4-15 | .303 | 44-147 |
Nick Markakis | .182 | 2-11 | .316 | 39-128 |
Brian McCann | .167 | 1-7 | .314 | 17-57 |
Dansby Swanson | .154 | 2-13 | .272 | 33-127 |
This year Freeman has solid numbers, but he’s not destroying the ball and crushing pitcher’s dreams on the first pitch as often as in the past. The most likely cause is lineup construction; pitchers would rather face Acuna than Freeman, and thus don’t necessarily ‘need’ to get ahead on the 1st pitch.
Ozzie, Ender, and Flowers have a sample size big enough to indicate they hit for a higher average on the first pitch. Camargo is struggling in general but first pitch swinging he’s done a lot better.
Markakis and Swanson shouldn’t swing at first pitches; it goes against the way they were taught to play the game. McCann usually hits well on the first pitch – .314/.326/.522/848 – but so far he’s not doing well when he swings early.
That was the week that was
In spite of a friendly and giving Marlins team, this week wasn’t a great one for the bats.
Josh Donaldson started to find the groove he lost when he missed those games to protect a strained right calf muscle, and Acuña started to warm up in the last game of the Dodger series.
Overall Hot | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BACON |
Brian McCann | 16 | .286 | .313 | .571 | .884 | .333 |
Freddie Freeman | 31 | .267 | .290 | .533 | .824 | .308 |
Nick Markakis | 28 | .182 | .357 | .455 | .812 | .190 |
Matt Joyce | 8 | .286 | .375 | .429 | .804 | .333 |
Josh Donaldson | 29 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .792 | .412 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | 24 | .292 | .292 | .458 | .750 | .389 |
Overall Not | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BACON |
Ozzie Albies | 34 | .235 | .235 | .353 | .588 | .276 |
Dansby Swanson | 28 | .240 | .321 | .240 | .561 | .300 |
Ender Inciarte | 23 | .158 | .304 | .211 | .515 | .176 |
Charlie Culberson | 6 | .200 | .167 | .200 | .367 | .200 |
Johan Camargo | 10 | .111 | .200 | .111 | .311 | .125 |
Tyler Flowers | 12 | .083 | .083 | .083 | .167 | .200 |
Team (nonpitchers) | 249 | .228 | .277 | .377 | .654 | .283 |
If you said at anytime last week Swanson, Acuña, or anyone else was unlucky, you were correct.
StatCast shows everyone but McCann and Donaldson were to one degree or another, unlucky not to get a better result.
BBE | player | ba | xba | slg | xslg | woba | xwoba | EV | LA |
8 | McCann | .429 | .241 | 1.000 | .549 | .520 | .299 | 90.5 | 9.9 |
15 | Acuna Jr. | .400 | .445 | .600 | .863 | .429 | .552 | 94.3 | 14.1 |
5 | Joyce | .400 | .430 | .600 | .692 | .425 | .481 | 87.2 | 18.0 |
15 | Donaldson | .400 | .327 | .600 | .513 | .425 | .360 | 90.6 | 21.2 |
22 | Freeman | .318 | .387 | .682 | .824 | .418 | .507 | 91.2 | 11.8 |
17 | Markakis | .235 | .338 | .588 | .606 | .342 | .401 | 91.9 | 5.7 |
18 | Swanson | .333 | .353 | .333 | .562 | .293 | .387 | 90.5 | 12.2 |
27 | Albies | .259 | .282 | .370 | .408 | .271 | .294 | 85.6 | 20.0 |
15 | Inciarte | .200 | .258 | .267 | .332 | .200 | .252 | 83.2 | 16.8 |
5 | Culberson | .250 | .401 | .250 | .448 | .176 | .309 | 81.7 | 2.4 |
5 | Flowers | .200 | .162 | .200 | .182 | .176 | .145 | 91.4 | -3.0 |
8 | Camargo | .125 | .129 | .125 | .163 | .110 | .129 | 84.2 | 17.5 |
Unlucky | |||||||||
Lucky |
McCann’s sample size skews his good fortune a bit, while Donaldson’s fight to regain form because he sat with that injury fits their numbers.
StatCast confirmed Flowers awful week at the plate and Camargo’s continued inability to find his rhythm on either side of the dish.
Camargo needs to get consistent playing time, or he may never get his swing back. With Austin Riley raking at Gwinnett and playing some outfield, it might be time to exercise Camargo’s option year and bring Riley up.
Camargo’s primarily been Donaldson’s backup at third and left field when we face a left-handed pitcher.
Riley is capable of doing both jobs, and Culberson can fill in at second or short in an emergency. He could use the at bats as well, but he has no options left.
Before everyone screams at me for suggesting it, take a look at his numbers and tell me you think they’ll get better sitting on the bench or playing two days a week. He’s hitting worse than Inciarte at the moment, and without Ender, there’s no backup center fielder on the roster.