A review of multiple current Atlanta Braves mock drafts

Through The Fence Baseball

Link to their full mock draft.

"Pick 9. (Compensation) Atlanta Braves: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (WA) (Commit: UCLA) Carroll’s hit and run tools are his most notable. There is some leverage he has that most prospects in this draft don’t, especially among prep hitters, is that he can spray the ball to all fields. He is small (5’11”, 161 lbs.) and lacks power, which draws comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. … They will hope [Kameron] Misner drops this far, but for now it’s Carroll."

This is now a month old, and if the Braves truly were high on Kam Misner, then maybe Carroll might be a better option.

Kameron Misner (University of Missouri) is a bit unusual:  a center fielder with power.  What I’m seeing in his stats, though, is the lack of a bona fide ‘hit tool’.  42 games in, he’s hitting just .267 in a league that a top pick should probably be dominating.

Sure, he has 16 homers and a .945 OPS, but he’s also struck out 44 times in 146 AB. He may be chasing pitches, too, given that opponent schools are clearly trying to pitch around him – 48 walks speaks loudly about that.

He does have the speed for the position (16 steals demonstrates this), but contrast his hitting with what we’ve seen from Ronald Acuna thus far in 2019.

While it’s not a totally fair comparison (at all), Acuna is steadfastly refusing to swing at pitches he doesn’t intend to drive somewhere. He’s often getting called out on borderline pitches, but he’s also hitting above .300.

Circumstances are different for Misner, but he’s just not showing the numbers you’d want to see from a college kid.

But that wasn’t their pick for us…

Back to the actual pick mentioned here: Corbin Carroll. Of note, he’s nearly 19 years old already, which impacts his projection just a bit (negatively).

That lack of power isn’t unusual for a high school kid, but you’d take a guy like this if you think he’s going to be a premium defender and stick at the position. That’s difficult to guess, but fangraphs is a believer, ranking him 8th overall on their draft board.

I’m personally not sold on either Misner or Carroll in this spot, especially given that the center field position is covered for at least the next 8-10 seasons.

That itself is not a good enough reason to pass on a premium player, but I think the Braves go in a different direction.