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Atlanta Braves: Just how good can Max Fried be?

By Daniel Rasmussen

DENVER, COLORADO - APRIL 09: Starting pitcher Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves throws in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on April 09, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - APRIL 09: Starting pitcher Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves throws in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on April 09, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 07: Starting pitcher Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 7, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 07: Starting pitcher Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 7, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

From Past To Present

It was during those healthy 2018 appearances at the big-league level that one began to get an idea for just how “special” this kid could be.

While he worked mostly in a relief role to ease the transition of his return from injuries, Max Fried was highly impressive during Atlanta’s division title-winning 2018.

In 14 total appearances (5 starts), here’s what Fried put up:

  • 33.2 innings pitched
  • 2.94 ERA
  • 3.24 xFIP
  • 11.76 strikeouts per 9 innings (!!)

All this coming while bouncing back from injuries during his age-24 season.

What’s got Braves fans super-pumped about how good Max Fried could actually be? He’s showing last year’s numbers were no fluke: he’s the real deal.

Admittedly, it’s a small sample, but let’s take a dive into Fried’s early numbers here in 2019, which – unlike ’18 – have almost entirely come from a starting role.

So far…

  • 26 innings pitched (4 games started)
  • 1.38 ERA
  • 1.04 WHIP
  • Already accumulated 0.6 fWAR

Sure, we shouldn’t jump the gun and assume that Max will put up a stellar sub-2.00 ERA all season, especially when his peripheral stats (xFIP is at 4.09) indicate he is due for some regression in the future.

Still, that 1.38 ERA?  It’s best in the majors among pitchers with Qualified innings!

What Makes Him Special?

However, an even deeper look at the numbers reflect what many of us see when we use the good ‘ole “eye test” to evaluate Max Fried: he’s a pitcher with a talented arsenal, including a ridiculous speed differential in his two primary pitches.

During ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast in Fried’s start vs the Cleveland Indians (a primetime showcase that saw Max put up his fourth straight quality start), the ESPN team put up a graphic that showed Fried’s fastball averaging just about 95 MPH, with his big-bending curveball sitting about 76 MPH – good enough for a 19 MPH-differential between the two most frequently-used pitches.

It’s also good enough for the fifth greatest differential in pitch speeds for any starter in baseball this year.

That variety in Fried’s toolbox is what has kept hitters from making solid contact against him this year.

Fangraphs outlines this in Fried’s batted ball profile for 2019, in which the line drive rate for hitters vs. Fried is down significantly (from 28.4% to 18.4%), and the groundball rate is up (from 51.4% to 55.3%).

The most encouraging sign of all? On a staff that has had all sorts of trouble with walks this year, Fried is heading in the opposite direction in that category, shaving his walk rate nearly in half from last year’s mark (5.35 BB/9 to 2.42).

This is clearly a pitcher who is finding his groove at the major league level, and the best is likely yet to come.

Having said that, it’s time to address the question: how good can this kid really be?

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