Predictions for the 2019 Atlanta Braves season from the TomahawkTake staff
The season is nearly upon us and the Atlanta Braves are about to embark on their annual trek through the National League (mostly). We have guesses on how they will fare.
It’s a fun… though usually perilous… exercise that we do each year: it’s our attempt to predict how the Atlanta Braves and their 29 other foes will finish the season.
It’s not an all together level playing field… hey – Seattle is already 2-0 on this season… but it never is exactly level and plumbed.
The unbalanced schedule means that the NL East teams will all face one another 18 or 19 times apiece while having home-and-home series’s against the rest of the NL.
This year, the Atlanta Braves and their NL East rivals will also see the teams from the AL Central.
This is the big separator that needs to be cashed in – it’s a clear advantage that the East has over other divisions, and it could end up swinging the Wild Card results (The Central division gets the AL West; the NL West will see the AL East clubs).
I asked for complete end-of-season standings and the the World Series winners, plus those who would take home the major awards.
We have 5 results recorded for you to point and laugh at come October from Jake Mastroianni, Clint Manry, Fred Owens, Kyle Walter, and myself. Hey – we’re fans, too!
Of course we’d also want to encourage you to place your own prognostications on this (virtual) paper once you’ve seen ours.
Let’s start with the American League.
AL East
I was going to put this into chart form, but as it turns out, only one of the 5 of us differed at all from the rest of the group.
Yeah – it was me.
Everybody believes that the New York Yankees will win this division this year. They could repeat with 100 wins or more, but this time end up on top.
They also start with a ridiculously easy schedule and could leap out front by a large margin… that itself could discourage others in the East.
In truth, their team isn’t a lot different than last year except for a couple of major exceptions:
- Add James Paxton, subtract Sonny Gray
- Add the best bullpen arms money can buy (except for one of them)
At the bottom: we all picked the Blue Jays and Orioles to finish 4th and 5th respectively. That just seems to be the correct alignment for these clubs – whether they’re rebuilding/tanking or whatever.
The difference in these guesses involved the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox.
I’m the outlier… the guy who picked the Rays to best the Red Sox for 2nd place.
The Rays seem to me more like a group of guys who are all in it together and will do anything to win… just like they did last year in taking 91 wins.
The Red Sox? 1 or 2 bad breaks and they could be in a world of hurt… especially with a sketchy bullpen. If they start losing a few, it could cascade on them; that could bring Tampa Bay into the mix quickly.
So mostly, we call it this way:
- Yankees
- Red Sox
- Rays
- Blue Jays
- Orioles
…though I have 2nd and 3rd places swapped.
AL Central
There are a couple of avenues of disagreement here in the Central division. This has to do with the top and the bottom… though we’re all in agreement on the mediocre middle.
Here’s the summary:
- We expect the Indians and Twins to fight it out on top
- We expect the White Sox to finish 3rd.
- We expect the Tigers and Royals to battle for the basement
This time it was Fred with the thought that the Twins will overtake the Indians. There’s reason to believe this, too: the Twins have some improved offense while the Tribe still has a sketchy outfield.
It’s the Minnesota pitching that will need to step up to get them past Cleveland, and that’s why the rest of us favor the Ohioans.
Speaking for the rest, I’m banking on the Indians’ pitching to carry them this year… but it’s also evident that they used the off-season to walk a fine line between ‘subtracting’ and ‘trying to stay in front of their division’.
That’s a tough dance maneuver to pull off… and it can be dangerous. This is particularly true when your rotation is led by a guy that was openly on the trading block for much of the Winter.
They also have some key injuries as we break camps – so don’t write off the Twins… Fred could be right.
On the bottom… it’s either Royals (4) and Tigers (5) or Tigers (4) and Royals (5). Jake and Fred joined me with the former order; Clint and Kyle took the latter.
Not much else to say here… except that 200 losses could come from those 4th/5th spots in this division.
AL West
I’ll be quick on this one, because there was a consensus again… for the most part.
- Astros the best (unanimous)
- Rangers the worst (unanimous)
- the rest??
Mostly we just don’t know what to do with the Angels and Mariners. Most of our crew thinks LA finishes 2nd. I don’t think they have the pitching to get there (as usual), so I grudgingly put them in 3rd place. Kyle had no such reluctance and made them 4th.
Oakland could do their usual thing and surprise everybody… Kyle and I place them 2nd in the division.
As usual, Billy Beane will probably be checking under couch cushions looking for enough cash to help make July moves, but his teams do compete. The rest of our writers generally agreed and ranked them 3rd.
Thus Seattle is left to finish in 4th place – so say the majority (Kyle placed them 3rd since he dissed the Angels).
In terms of off-season moves, it was the Seattle doing all the moves, but mostly in lateral/downward directions. The Angels tried and couldn’t get a lot done.
The Astros had their own self-imposed limits, but they were mostly set regardless. The Rangers? Just trying to field a plausible team.
Let’s move over to the Senior Circuit.
National League East
I got my (weak) chart done for this group:
Yes – we have some ‘homers’ here (no big shock – I understand that; I respect that). In truth, it’s reasonable to think that the Atlanta braves can repeat as division champs.
I… joined by Jake and Fred… expect that there will be a bit better play from the Nationals. It should be a different feel, different attitude coming out of DC, and frankly, that concerns me.
Mostly it’s about the Nationals’ highly experienced and highly successful pitching staff.
There’s a chance for vulnerability in the bullpen, but while they aren’t the big game name guys (as noted, the Yankees got most of them), they should be adequate enough behind a heckuva rotation and an offense that generates speed.
A couple of us knocked them down to a 3rd place finish, but honestly it’s difficult for me to see anything out of the Top 2.
The Braves have an offense and they have arm talent, but this rotation just isn’t long on experience. This is why I’ve been harping about getting Craig Kimbrel… though it’s he that needs to make the next move.
Beyond that, we aren’t sold on either the Mets or Phillies, with the Mets predicted for 4th place on every ballot. We know what they’ve done, but it’s a work in progress for both teams.
Would we be surprised with results that could put any of the Top 4 in any of the Top 4 slots? No… not really. A lot happens during an MLB season.
The Marlins? *sigh*
NL Central
Welcome to the other most competitive division in baseball. What’s most interesting about our picks this year is this: none of us think the Cubs are going to win it.
Oh, they’ll do okay (I picked them for second; so did Kyle), but we all believe that others will prevail.
3 of us (myself, Fred, and Clint) call this one for the Cardinals; the others went with Milwaukee.
In truth, I see the Cardinals as the most balanced, the Cubs are having something to prove, and the Brewers as trying to hang on – particularly with their pitching. All of them have flaws, though, and that makes this an interesting and compelling race to watch.
Beyond that? We have agreement: Cincinnati 4th and the Pirates 5th.
We just don’t believe that the Pirates improved… at all, really… while the Reds scrambled and spent money to do just that.
Unfortunately for them, it’s more-or-less just window dressing. They just don’t have a lot – certainly not enough to compete at the top of this division.
NL West
The Dodgers have won this division for the better part of this decade now, and most of us believe that will continue.
Except for me.
If there’s a NL surprise this year, I think it will be right here… and the Colorado Rockies could pull it off.
Well, it’s actually not really on their own merits exclusively, for I’m very concerned about the Dodger pitching. If they break down much, they could have serious trouble patching together enough innings to keep afloat.
On top of that, there were times in which they were carried by Matt Kemp in the 1st half of 2018… and he’s not there. That production has to be replaced and consistently so. Ditto for the hitting of Yasmani Grandall.
As a result, there’s more than a few dents in their armor, but not enough for the votes to go their way.
After that, we mostly go like this:
- Rockies 2nd (all but me)
- Padres 3rd (all but Clint)
- DBacks 4th (all but Clint)
- Giants 5th (all but Clint, who has them 3rd)
I don’t see the Giants making any big strides at all. They are looking … old… and in need of a rebuild. That could happen by midseason, and thus they could strip the cupboard bare.
At least Arizona still has a few pieces to work with. San Diego needs pitching, but they are still a work in progress.
That’s a wrap of the majors… now let’s check the award winners.
Who Wins?
Darn fine question. But of course we’ll guess.
This year I dispensed with the preliminaries and ask the crew to give me their picks for the World Series teams… and the winner. You might detect a bit of homerism?
- ME – Yankees over the Braves
- JAKE – Nationals over the Astros
- FRED – Yankees over the Cardinals
- CLINT – Braves over the Yankees
- KYLE – Yankees over the Dodgers
Yes, many of us believe that the Yankees have the horsepower to break through this year. The Astros or Red Sox could get there from the AL, but as noted before, both teams have flaws that could be a problem.
The Nationals appears (on paper) to be the more complete team overall, but there is definitely reason to think that any of the alternate choices given could also prevail.
If you’re still paying attention, I’m the only one who decided to bring a Wild Card team (Atlanta) to the Fall Classic. That wasn’t simply a whim on my part… there was actually reason and logic behind it.
The Braves – for all their “almost” deals this winter – have essentially promised something big at the trade deadline (yeah, I know… hang with me on this).
I do expect that Atlanta will be behind at this point due to a tougher up-front schedule. So the catch will be ‘how far behind?’.
If it’s a lot, then the Front Office might be inclined to withhold the ‘big deal’ to help out the club in July. If they are still close, then they have no reason not to go all in. Thus while I’m still expecting the Nationals to take the division, the Braves could be on an upswing towards playoff time… and hopefully that momentum can carry them to the Series.
That’s my story – sticking to it.
Awards
National League MVP – all of these are plausible:
- 3 of us named Ronald Acuna Jr. Hitting in the 4-hole could definitely boost his RBI stats
- 1 vote for Freddie Freeman
- 1 vote for Max Scherzer
American League MVP
- 4 votes for Mike Trout, the $400 million man
- 1 vote for Mookie Betts
National League Cy Young Award Winner –
- 3 votes for Max Scherzer
- 2 votes for Jacob DeGrom
- Honestly, unless Aaron Nola goes off, I don’t see another real candidate at this point.
American League Cy Young Award Winner – this was all over the map
Yep – this one is wide open… and there are probably 2-4 additional candidates (including the defending champ Blake Snell, who wasn’t even named [he was my runner-up to Kluber]).
National League Rookie of the Year –
- 3 votes for Victor Robles
- 1 vote for Peter Alonso
- 1 vote for Bryse Wilson (that was Clint… his enthusiasm will not wane!)
American Le…. oh never mind: we all picked Vladimir Guerrero Jr., of course.
> Of note: Vladdie The Young does have the opportunity to crash and burn here. His conditioning has gotten out of control over the past year or so.
Fangraphs still has him listed at 6’1″/200 lbs. Baseball-reference has an update: 6’2″/250. That’s not muscle he’s added, either… some have suggested that even this ‘250’ number might be generous.
It’s probably not going to help that he’s on the shelf with an oblique injury right now, either. If he can’t get this figured out, his 1st season could be underwhelming… and that could give the trophy to… perhaps an Astro?
Thanks for sticking with us here… hopefully you enjoy what we’re doing, which is trying to make the best sense we can about baseball, our Atlanta Braves and why we are the way we are.
Next. The Story lines for 2019. dark
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