How Atlanta Braves position players stack up in the NL East: left field
TAMPA, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 26: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on prior to the Grapefruit League spring training game against the New York Yankees at Steinbrenner Field on February 26, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
#4 – Philadelphia Phillies
LF – ANDREW McCUTCHEN
There are reasons to believe that Andrew McCutchen should be ranked higher.
He will very likely see runners on base ahead of him. He will be out of San Francisco. He will be in the Philly Band Box known as Citizens Bank Park. He’s still only 32 years old, and he once threw years of 7.3, 8.1, 7.4, and 6.0 fWAR on the board in consecutive seasons (2012-15).
Has he lost his legs? Maybe a step or 2, though with 14 steals in 2018, that was his highest total in that category since 18 in 2014.
However, McCutchen won’t have to run as much in the corner, so his defense should improve – and indeed: any improvement to the outfield defense will be welcomed in Philadelphia this year.
Looking further, McCutchen hit between 20 and 28 homers every year since 2011… excepting 31 in 2012. The difference is that his hitting has taken a dip in recent seasons – going from the .310-330 range to the .255-.280 range since 2016.
In that lineup, he won’t need to do anything more than that, but in this home park, he certainly could.
- The defense should be a touch below normal, though improved over prior recent seasons.
- His hitting should be around the .260-265 level
- I expect increased homers and RBI, perhaps 26-28 HR with 80-90 RBI.
All of that likely translates to something approaching 3.0-3.5 fWAR… especially if teams pitch around others to get to this guy. A higher number would not surprise me, either.
It’s a great situation for him, and while that ranks him 4th in the NL East, it’s “veryclose” to flipping to the next slot.