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How Atlanta Braves position players stack up in the NL East: 2nd base

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 07: Brian Dozier #6 of the Los Angeles Dodgers slides safely into second base against Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning during Game Three of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 7, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 07: Brian Dozier #6 of the Los Angeles Dodgers slides safely into second base against Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning during Game Three of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 7, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 12: Starlin Castro #13 of the Miami Marlins walks back to the dugout after grounding out in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 12, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 12: Starlin Castro #13 of the Miami Marlins walks back to the dugout after grounding out in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 12, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

#5: Miami Marlins

Starlin Castro / Neil Walker

Castro looks to get the majority of innings here for the Marlins, and at age 28 with a 2.3 fWAR in 2018, he deserves to get the first shot… besides, Walker is actually penciled in as the starter at first base, so depth charts aside, it actually would appear that old friend Martin Prado makes more sense as a backup option here.

I’ll actually be a bit kind to the Marlins and attribute the whole season’s 2B projection to Castro.

Still, we rank Castro and his team fifth not because we expect a regression so much as the fact that the whole team in Miami has regressed around him.

When you look at their lineup, the Marlins simply don’t have a lot of hitters that scare you as a pitcher, and that means any actual threat – even if Castro represents a threat – can be pitched around.  That just makes Miami’s plight so much worse.

You could argue that it’s already happening.  Team batting averages this Spring – although still not a significant stat, it has to be said – puts Miami 3rd-worst among all MLB squads competing this Spring.

Run scoring?  4th worst.  This speaks of the minor league players more than the MLB roster, but it’s a statement about the entire organization, really.

So while Castro has had his moments (3.2 fWAR in both 2012 and 2014 for the Cubs), that’s been his ceiling and it came with (a) a robust Cubs offense around him, and (b) solid defensive numbers involved.

His power production will take a hit in Miami (it did in 2018… 12 HR in 647 PA’s while he hit 16 with the Yankees in 2017 despite 1/3rd fewer PAs.  His defense will be good, but probably can’t be much better than his 2018 numbers.

Steamer and ZiPS both project lower hitting averages, and I agree.  Castro’s fWAR will likely range in the 1.2 to 2.0 range as a result:  call it 1.6 to split the difference, and that ranks 5th in this division.

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