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How Atlanta Braves position players stack up in the East: 1st base

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 16: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves chats with Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals at first base at SunTrust Park on September 16, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia.(Photo by Kelly Kline/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 16: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves chats with Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals at first base at SunTrust Park on September 16, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia.(Photo by Kelly Kline/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 09: Neil Walker #14 of the New York Yankees hits a single against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium on October 09, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 09: Neil Walker #14 of the New York Yankees hits a single against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium on October 09, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

#5 – Miami Marlins

Neil Walker/Martin Prado

I really hate to rank these guys here.  They are both ‘gamers’ and would do anything to help their teams, but at some point the production just dries up and there isn’t much you can do about that.

The 33½-year-old Walker – a former second baseman – is listed first on the depth chart; the (nearly) 35½-year-old Prado is second, and seems to be a bench/role player for this season as he will also back up third base behind Brian Anderson.

Walker should get the lion’s share of the reps and ABs, which could be the first time he’s had a full-season role since 2015 with the Pirates (151 games/603 Plate Appearances).

Walker’s production ranged consistently in the 2.4-to-4.1 range (mostly around 2.5) for 6 consecutive years until slipping to 2.2 in 2017 (due to fewer AB/Games) and 0.1 in 2018.

In 2018 with the Yankees, his hitting collapsed, losing over 50 points to his career batting average (now at .268), with strikeouts climbing and slugging dropping.  His OPS was an anemic .663.

Projections suggest that he could rebound outside of Yankees stadium, and while that’s plausible, Walker had the reverse problem of then-teammate Sonny Gray:  he did actually play better in Yankee Stadium.

That also presents a conundrum for manager Don Mattingly, as Martin Prado also hit much better at home (albeit in Miami, not New York).  If Walker duplicates that, then the road games will be a severe test for the Miami first basemen… no matter who they run out there.

Prado himself has been hurt much of the last 2 seasons – just 91 games between them – and saw his first Spring action on Saturday (0-2).

So in total, assessing their production is a bit of a craps shoot… but either way, you could expect their numbers to come in at the bottom of the scale.

  • Walker’s projections come in around 0.6/.65 fWAR
  • Prado’s are at 0.1, save for the ZiPS service (0.7).  I tend to side with the lower numbers.

So even if an optimistic world, this pair could be looking at a 1.0 WAR season… combined.  even the best-possible-case scenario is probably little more than 2.0.

In addition, while both have histories of good glovework, 1st base isn’t a native position for either.  That and the toil the age takes, and there could be a few challenges ahead defensively.

So Miami has to rank 5th of the 5th teams in the NL East.

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