Atlanta Braves: 5 requirements for the Braves to win the NL East in 2019
By Clint Manry
3. Continue to Play Excellent Defense
Even in years when the Braves were cellar dwellers and couldn’t score runs, they at least played defense. Defense isn’t flashy, nor is it easily quantified, but it doesn’t lack in importance.
A weak defense can cause a team to shoot itself in the foot time and time again, as preventing runs is just as important as scoring them.
In 2018, and in many other seasons, the Braves were a top-5 defense in the Major Leagues. If you didn’t know this by now, the Atlanta Braves organization has always prioritized a strong defense.
Here’s three advanced defensive stats that help quantify a defense as a whole – the Braves led the NL East in all three of these:
- 59 DRS (Defensive-Runs-Saved)
- 2.6 UZR/150
- 23.9 Def fWAR.
There are several savvy defenders on the Braves team at the moment, in Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to name a few. There’s really no one now on the roster that is just an absolute liability with the glove; and that’s actually pretty rare.
Just check out each defender’s DRS (defensive-runs-saved) value for the Braves in 2018. Every player listed here ranked first in the NL East in DRS:
- (1B) Freddie Freeman – 12 DRS (led NL)
- (2B) Ozzie Albies – 8 DRS (2nd in NL)
- (SS) Dansby Swanson – 10 DRS (4th in NL)
- (3B) Johan Camargo – 7 DRS (led NL)
- (CF) Ender Inciarte -17 DRS (2nd in NL)
- (RF) Nick Markakis – 2 DRS (2nd in NL)
What’s amazing is that there’s more on the way in terms of skilled defenders: Cristian Pache and Drew Waters will one day be headlining the Braves group on defense.
Getting the Tough Ones
On Baseball Savant, they provide catch-probability ratings of 1-5 for balls put in play, with 5 being the toughest (0-25% catch probability) and 1 being the easiest (91-95% catch probability).
Ender Inciarte and Ronald Acuna Jr. both tied for the best 4-star catches-made percentage in Major League Baseball in 2018:
- Ender Inciarte: 85.7% (12 of 14)
- Ronald Acuna Jr: 85.7% (6 of 7)
Ender Inciarte also accrued 21 OAA (outs-above-average), good for second in the Majors.
Outs-Above-Average takes all Catch Probability plays (catches made and not made) and creates a range-based metric that accounts for the plays made and the difficulty.
All of those stats were great in 2018, but the defense must continue to play at that level in 2019. Most likely everything will not all go right for the Braves, as every season features many failures.
But if the defense will stay in the class it has been, than the Braves will have a chance each and every night.