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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: how to get Bryce Harper

By Alan Carpenter

WEST POINT, NY - MAY 18: Boxes of silver bullion coins are seen in a storage area at the West Point Mint on May 18, 2012 in West Point, New York. The U.S. Mint in West Point along with the Philadelphia Mint are striking up to 2 million 2011 September 11 National Medals that commemorate the 10th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The one ounce silver medal features Lady Liberty holding the lamp of remembrance and the words "always remember" on one side and an eagle with the words "honor and hope" on the other side. The medal sells for $66.95. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
WEST POINT, NY - MAY 18: Boxes of silver bullion coins are seen in a storage area at the West Point Mint on May 18, 2012 in West Point, New York. The U.S. Mint in West Point along with the Philadelphia Mint are striking up to 2 million 2011 September 11 National Medals that commemorate the 10th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The one ounce silver medal features Lady Liberty holding the lamp of remembrance and the words "always remember" on one side and an eagle with the words "honor and hope" on the other side. The medal sells for $66.95. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /
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British salvage diver Keith Jessop (1933 – 2010) of Jessop Marine, holding the first gold bar recovered from the British cruiser ‘HMS Edinburgh’, circa 1981. (The bar’s estimated value is £130,000.) The vessel sank in 1942 during World War II, while carrying a cargo of gold bullion to Russia as payment for military equipment. (Photo by Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
British salvage diver Keith Jessop (1933 – 2010) of Jessop Marine, holding the first gold bar recovered from the British cruiser ‘HMS Edinburgh’, circa 1981. (The bar’s estimated value is £130,000.) The vessel sank in 1942 during World War II, while carrying a cargo of gold bullion to Russia as payment for military equipment. (Photo by Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images) /

The Harper Clauses

Let’s construct the framework for a possible Harper deal based on this Scott Boras invention… noting that he is precisely now entering his prime production years:

  • 4 years at $35 million (his age 26-29 seasons)  [$140m]
  • Team option:  3 more years at $33.33 million (ages 30-32 seasons)  [+$100m]
  • Team option:  3 more years at $25 million (ages 33-35 seasons)  [+$75m]
  • Team option:  2 more years at $25 million (ages 36-37 seasons)  [+$50m]
  • If any team option is rejected, player option/opt-out for 1 more year at $20 million.  Contract then terminates.
  • If player rejects that single year add-on after the rejection of a team option, $5 million buyout, and contract is terminated.

The maximum possible value for all of this is $365 million over 12 years, which would allow Scott Boras to claim that it’s a record contract deal… and better than the 10 year/$300 million deal he was supposedly offered from the Nats last Fall.  However… the chance of it going anywhere near that far is not high.

Here’s the breakdown of guarantees for each point that the contract could end:

  • After year 4:  $145 million (minimum value of the deal as presented)
  • After year 5:  $160 million
  • After year 7:  $250 million
  • After year 8:  $265 million
  • After year 10:  $330 million
  • After year 11:  $345 million
  • After year 12:  $365 million

The offer is front-loaded, though I would suggest including a $5 million annual deferment of cash payable annually at no interest beginning the first year that the contract is no longer in force.  That reduces the annual outlay to a more manageable level, and pushes dollars out to a future years in which they are valued a bit less.

Front-loading allows the player (Harper in this case) to be paid appropriately for his most productive years, and then limits team cost exposure in the out-years while also giving Harper an incentive to ‘bet on himself’ and terminate the contract early for a new venture into free agency.

At the same time, the team also is able to claim a measure of control at various points in the deal.

Why would the Braves do this? 

  • Because Harper is a game-changing player who carries a .900 OPS for his career (Freeman boasts an .875; was .892 in 2018).
  • Because the Braves’ window is now open and they should take full advantage while they can
  • Because premium hitters don’t grow on trees (explaining how Donaldson is a Brave today)
  • Because something structured like this is likely the only way it might be acceptable to the Braves.
  • Braves sometimes you have to do exceptional things.

Why would Harper do this?

  • A chance at big money
  • A quick opportunity for big money early
  • Choices
  • Possibly the best offer he’s going to see

Implications

First, the obvious one:  the Braves would have 4 outfielders and 3 spots to play them.

  • Harper goes to Left field
  • Acuna to Center
  • Markakis in Right (he has a 2020 option as well)

That leaves out Ender Inciarte, who, I would then dangle to Cleveland… possibly as part of a big package for Corey Kluber.

You wanna go all in?  As this point, you’re now definitely ‘all in’.

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