Atlanta Braves Rumors: Marlins want Ian Anderson or Austin Riley
Very Tough Call
Just how much surplus value these players might be worth is still a matter for scouts, yet even scouts differ on the outlooks of these players.
Baseball America, for example, ranks Riley #22 overall. MLB Pipeline puts him #38. ESPN’s Keith Law (insider subscription required) puts him #87.
BA also has Ian Anderson as the #2 prospect for Atlanta, right behind Riley at #24 overall (subscription required for full report). Anderson is #30 on Law’s list, and #32 in the Pipeline.
Using this year-old chart, here’s the expected value of both players:
- Anderson: 6.5 Wins Above Replacement, $32.2 million of surplus value.
- Riley…
- if higher ranked: 7.5 WAR (the more conservative figure was taken across the boundary) and $37.6 million of surplus value
- if lower ranked: 4.2 WAR, $20.2 million
- It’s reasonable to suggest that if the Marlins are more-or-less equating these players, they are opting for the higher Riley ranking internally; I’ll assume that going forward.
In addition, there is a ‘bust’ chance given on this chart:
- Anderson: 42.2% chance of less than 3 WAR; 23.3% chance of 0.0 or less.
- Riley: 50.5% chance of producing under 3 WAR; 32.1% chance of 0.0 or less.
We already have a track record for Realmuto:
- 2015: 1.9
- 2016: 3.7
- 2017: 3.8
- 2018: 4.8
Total: 14.3 fWAR. There’s a lot of value there… proven value.
Now you can look at those numbers and suggest ‘Realmuto for 2 more years should beat those prospect estimates’.
That’s true: he’s nearly 28, in his prime, and should be expected to throw 4+ WAR each of the next 2 seasons. Ergo, the Braves should offer either prospect and more, right?
Well…. maybe…