Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Odds suggest Braves will struggle to win in 2019

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TOKYO, JAPAN – NOVEMBER 08: Catcher J.T. Realmuto #11 of the Miami Marlins slides safely into the homebase to score a run to make it 7-0 while Infielder Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds gestures in the top of 3rd inning during the exhibition game between Yomiuri Giants and the MLB All Stars at Tokyo Dome on November 8, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images) /

What are the Reds doing??

We’ve been following the J.T. Realmuto saga ad nauseum for this entire off-season. But now the Cincinnati Reds are said to have entered the fray in an attempt to acquire the Human Trade Rumor.

So far this off-season, the Reds have gone out and grabbed Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. That’s impressive, though we’re kind of all wondering ‘to what end?’

Since I’v been talking about odds, let me go back to OddsShark for a second…. yes, they believe this Reds team will be much improved… with a 77.5 over/under win total.

Yet that’s still well behind predictions for the Cubs (88.5), Cardinals (88.5), and Milwaukee (84.5) in their own division… and dead even with the Pirates.

This notion that they need to get Realmuto is a bit bizarre… especially since they already have a good (not great) young catcher in Tucker Barnhart.

Ken Rosenthal broke this down even more, noting that they weren’t willing to trade Nick Senzel as part of a Corey Kluber inquiry, so the idea that they might now do so for Realmuto seems surreal as best.

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Top Reds draft pick Jonathan India (5th overall) has been mentioned prominently now, too, in talks with the Marlins. This is more plausible, given that they have Senzel for third base, but India is a ways off from the majors, and the Marlins would seemingly prefer more mature prospects.

Regardless, the Reds are still going to be a 4th/5th place team, and Realmuto’s presence won’t change that one iota. Never mind that after 2019, the Reds will have to replace 2 outfielders and 2 of the pitchers they just acquired.

The adage is that it only takes one stupid team to make a foolish trade – or to give a free agent the kind of money he wants – and that’s what the Marlins have been begging for this entire Winter.

Maybe that’s happening now in the Reds… and maybe they’ll drive others to follow suit.

When we complain about Alex Anthopoulos not making moves, and learn that he’s wrestling over issues involving the club’s future, this is exactly the kind of short-sighted thinking that he’s trying to avoid… mortgaging a future to pay for a flash-in-the-pan result.

Except that with Cincinnati… they aren’t even going to see that flash. Nice try, but you’re just not quite there.

Next. Examining the Past: Pitching Prospect History. dark

At least, that what the odds suggest.

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