House That Hank Built
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Atlanta Braves next pursuit may come via the mound

By Alan Carpenter

ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 21: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on September 21, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 21: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on September 21, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 16: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox during Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 16: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox during Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Begging the Question

So now, it appears Anthopoulos and the Braves are bent on getting that #1 rotation arm. Where is that coming from?

Let’s start with the available free agents… since that’s a very short list.

Despite recent rumors that Atlanta is talking about Gio Gonzalez, there’s really only one obvious ‘higher level’ pitcher available on the free agent market right now, and that’s Dallas Keuchel.  Cut from the Tim Hudson mold, Keuchel isn’t going to be overpowering, but will induce weaker contact and lots of grounders.

Let me defer to BrooksBaseball.net – as I’ve done in the past – to illustrate Keuchel’s effectiveness:

"His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has surprisingly little armside run and has some natural sinking action. His slider sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and has below average velo. His cutter has extreme cut action and has some natural sink. His change has slightly below average velo and has some natural sink to it. His fourseam fastball is straight as an arrow, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has essentially average velo."

Keuchel, however, comes with a couple of hindrances to signability:

  • Qualifying Offer compensation, a penalty that the Braves would prefer not to incur (but would under the ‘right circumstances’),
  • the desire for a longer-term deal; and
  • Scott Boras – his agent.

Keuchel has been durable enough: in 6-1/2 seasons, he’s amassed nearly 1200 innings and hit 200 on three occasions, including 2018.

Some analysts have noted that his pitching style should serve his body well – he’s not a ‘max effort’ pitcher., and thus he could be a candidate to last longer than many of his peers.

All that said:  while Keuchel would be a nice addition, it’s hard to suggest that he fulfills the hopes and dreams that Anthopoulos envisions for an ‘ace’, for his numbers have been essentially alternating up and down… last season yielding the most hits in the majors (211 in 204.2 innings with a 131 WHIP).

That’s good… but doesn’t ‘push everybody else down’ in the rotation.

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