Atlanta Braves GM tells A-list members: A deal is close

Relief pitching

Now come on take a walk with me, Arlene And tell me, who do you love?  – Bo Diddley (1958)

Anthopoulos said that January 14 was the first day they had any discussions with free agent relievers.

We would rather fill a need from within than sign a FA pitcher we don’t love out of desperation.

The question becomes, who do they love? The market’s not thick with relievers to fall in love with these days. There’s a case that Kirby Yates deserves some admiration, as do Taylor Rogers and Drew Steckenrider.  Their cost likely exceeds the value the Atlanta Braves put on them making them perhaps part of a deal for another need. That brings me to the critical quote of the get-together.

“There’s one trade concept right now that 70% of the deal we would agree to, the 30% is probably where we are going back and forth. I don’t know if we are going to get it done, but the main piece of the deal I think we ultimately would be ok, it’s the add on”

That predictably brought a slew of responses from Twitter, but what did he say?

Possibilities are many – facts are few.

Regardless of Mr. Mish’s seemingly endless tweets, the Atlanta Braves GM said that the catching market is quiet, and they haven’t talked with anyone recently about catching. So the deal isn’t about a catcher, and his words about relievers mean they, too, look to be off the table.

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A week ago I wrote that trading for Madison Bumgarner should be a priority and on January  13, Farhan Zaidi said the Giants were about to do something.

“we’re hopeful to have an announcement on a signing or a trade here in the next couple of days,”.

Later he poured cold water on the idea of trading the big lefty.

“We spent this offseason having to be realistic with where we are and being willing to listen on anything. But it doesn’t change the fact that Madison Bumgarner is a very central cog to this team.  Nobody is making any outgoing calls on Madison Bumgarner.”

Maybe the signing of Derek Holland was the move he meant, but Bumgarner is still a great fit and a trade that would require pieces. While Bumgarner has a useful bat as well, it’s not one the Braves could slot into the four-spot behind Freddie Freeman, and that’s the more pressing need.

Bats to consider

We’re talking about a trade, and if it is for a corner outfielder, the list of those worthy of a multi-piece deal are few.

Teams willing to move a corner outfield bat have an excess of outfielders or are in full rebuild mode. That narrows the field considerably. I came up with a quick – and short –  list based on the trade being a major piece worthy of meaningful secondary pieces; Mitch Haniger, Eddie Rosario, Hunter Renfroe, and Kyle Tucker.

We’ve discussed Haniger to pieces this offseason. Jerry Dipoto’s said Haniger isn’t moving and if he were other teams would be in on him; so scratch Haniger.

Houston you may have my outfielder

The Astros quite rightly refused to trade Tucker for J.T. Realmuto, but they are looking for a controllable starting pitcher. The Atlanta Braves could provide that in the form of Sean Newcomb; he’s both affordable and offers long-term control, something the Astros need if they are to keep some of their younger players around.

If it’s Newcomb for Tucker, the Astros would want another good player like Cristian Pache or Drew Waters as well. The Braves would look to dive into the Astros for a lower level piece to balance the books like Jonathan Arauz or Peter Solomon.

I’d love to have both Tuckers in the Braves system, but I doubt this is the player.

Eddie Rosario

I traded for Rosario as part of the simulated winter meetings here on FanSided, and I love this player. Rosario plays either corner but probably projects better defensively in left.

He’s a left-handed hitter who doesn’t need a platoon partner though his power does drop against lefties:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

In the simulation, I sent Julio Teheran and Shane Carle to Minnesota for Rosario and Andrew Cabezas. Since that time the Twins decided they want to challenge the Indians next season and would likely want a better arm than Teheran.

They too would want Newcomb making the deal more complicated as pieces get discussed. If we could pluck Taylor Rogers from their pen and add a lower level prospect a deal like that could work.

The Twins do have other outfielders, but none ready for major league play they can reasonably expect to replace Rosario. This deal seems closer than Tucker but is still not the one most likely to occur.

Hunter Renfroe

I started piecing together this idea about two weeks ago. Renfroe is your prototypical corner outfield bat. He hit 26 homers in 441 PA  last season playing most of his games in a division that featured some pretty good pitching from the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.

He had an awful start to 2018, but from June first on hit .249/.297/.810/.807 with a .338 wOBA and 117 wRC+, including 24 homers and 18 doubles. He dropped his K-rate from 29% to 24% last season, and while I grimace at that number, it’s acceptable in today’s game. His splits are almost even as well allowing him to play on an everyday basis.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Defensively, Renfroe has the arm for right field, and while UZR doesn’t rate him highly, he produced 5-DRS last season and Baseball Prospectus credited him with a 7.2 DRAA and 5.2 FRAA.

The Padres and Braves match up well; the Braves want a corner outfielder, and the Padres want a third baseman. They would undoubtedly ask for Austin Riley as the centerpiece of the deal. Offensively, they project as similar players as these scouting grades from their respective player pages indicate

Both teams would want to add pieces to make it work.  I could see something like Riley and Teheran heading west for Renfroe, Yates and Hudson Potts.

That’s a wrap

It’s possible the Padres would want Camargo instead of Riley because they value his versatility and want to move Wil Myers with some cash to offset some of the cost of his contract.

I considered Aaron Hicks and Sonny Gray from the Yankees for Newcomb and another piece but discarded that as the fit isn’t as good for either team.

The possibility of a package including Brian Anderson and Realmuto would bring two needs to the Atlanta Braves, but it seems the Fish are shooting themselves in the foot (fins?) this offseason making such a deal harder to imagine.

If the deal is 70% done and the Atlanta Braves notoriously secretive GM, an executive who tells no one anything, spoke about it in public, he’s pretty sure it’s going to happen. All we can do it hope it’s enough to push past the Mets, Nationals, and Phillies.