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Atlanta Braves free agent profile: Joe Kelly

By Benjamin Chase

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 06: Pitcher Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the third inning of Game Two of the American League Division Series against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on October 6, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 06: Pitcher Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the third inning of Game Two of the American League Division Series against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on October 6, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
FORT MYERS, – MARCH 14: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox warms up prior to the start of the Spring Training Game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 14, 2016 at Jet Blue Park at Fenway South, Florida. The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 3-1. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images) /

His stuff

Kelly is a power pitcher to the core, averaging an incredible 99.2 MPH on his fastball in 2017. He saw that number come down some in 2018, but that was as much due to some changes in how they measure the velocity of pitches that caused most velocities league-wide to tick down a notch or two.

Kelly works with five pitches out of the bullpen, each of which he throws enough to note. He throws his four-seamer just a shade under 50% of the time and his sinker just under 8% of the time.

His best offspeed pitch is his curveball, a spike curve that he throws in the mid-80s and that he uses 18% of the time. He also has a slider that sits right around 90 MPH that he uses 15% of the time and an upper-80s change that he uses around 11% of the time.

The downfall of that many pitches in a bullpen role is that you can end up tinkering a bit and not simply relying on one or two bread-and-butter pitches. However, having the hitter unsure of what’s coming next can have its own advantages as well.

Cost

MLB Trade Rumors had Kelly ranked the #25 overall player in their top 50 free agents rankings for the offseason. Their prediction for Kelly was a 3-year, $27 million dollar contract, giving him an average annual value in that deal of $9 million.

After his big postseason, those years could definitely be there, but Kelly is just 30, and with his raw stuff, he could end up having a monster year and earning a huge payday in a much less-saturated reliever free agent market next offseason by taking a short-term deal.

The Atlanta Braves could push for that by offering Kelly $10-12 million upfront with escalators based on how many games he finishes (essentially paying him more if he is the team’s closer) that could pay him up to $14-15 million. If he’s tremendous in the back end for the Braves in 2019, he could end up earning a qualifying offer after the season, as he’d be highly desired with his postseason record from this season as well as one big season as a closer under his belt.

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Certainly, even at $9 million annually, Kelly’s talent for 3 seasons is nothing the Atlanta Braves should blink at. With a deep reliever market, however, multiple players could end up being bargain signings, and Kelly’s postseason likely means he won’t be the one garnering any bargains.

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