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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: the Market Forces are strong with these

By Alan Carpenter

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 26: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after retiring the side in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Three of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 26, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 26: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after retiring the side in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Three of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 26, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /
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BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 24: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox prepares to deliver the pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning in Game Two of the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park on October 24, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 24: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox prepares to deliver the pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning in Game Two of the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park on October 24, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Here’s 1 Special Guy

About that Craig Kimbrel reference above.  There’s a supplemental tweet from Howard that also applies here:

If Kimbrel really would like to come back to Atlanta – and yes, he’d be welcomed with open arms – then he and his agent (David Meter) are going to have to decide just how bad they want to do that.  Those 2 tweets above have essentially drawn a line in the sand.

Kimbrel has already pulled $55 million in career earnings from 3 different teams.  He will have a chance to double that – and more – via his free agency this off-season.  But as much as he may need the Braves while the Braves also need him, there are multiple impediments:

  • He will be 31 in May and wants a 6-year deal
  • His free agency also requires the expenditure of a draft pick (a 2nd rounder for Atlanta)
  • Being the best available reliever out there, he Is the market place price driver.

I understand enough of the economics (and math) to know what’s going on here.  Kimbrel’s agent (more than Craig himself, probably) is looking at these numbers from prior deals:

  • Aroldis Chapman:  5 years, $86 million  ($17.2m AAV, 2019 opt out)
  • Kenley Jansen:  5 years, $80 million  ($16m AAV, 2019 opt out; big $$ jump after 2018)

So in the abstract, 5 years and $85 million would get a quick signature.

This is pretty simple, really:  These are New York and Los Angeles numbers… not Atlanta numbers.

Kimbrel just has to decide whether he wants to be part of this reunion party that the Braves are having, with Venters and McCann already in the fold and with Josh Donaldson having his own little come-backer with Anthopoulos.

Four years at $15 million… maybe $16 million.  It’s a guess, but that’s probably what it will take for the Braves to even glance in his direction.

I don’t think it will happen… Philly would be willing at least 5/$75m.  Washington might be willing too – especially now that they’ve saved money on catchers.

It’s a big ask to get Kimbrel down that far from the asking price, but that’s why it’s all about his a decision that he will have to make.

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