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Atlanta Braves rumors: Wish list includes Dallas Keuchel and apparently a lot of others

By Fred Owens

The Atlanta Braves are rumored to have former Astros starter and Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel in their wish list. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
The Atlanta Braves are rumored to have former Astros starter and Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel in their wish list. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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Should the Atlanta Braves add Keuchel?

Jumping back to Ben’s post, he compared Keuchel to Julio Teheran.

"Keuchel in all of his rankings over the last five seasons is essentially 3-5 spots higher than Julio Teheran . . ."

I’m not sure I understand that comparison. Teheran and Keuchel are very close in a couple of areas.

  • Career MLB IP Keuchel 1189+ Teheran 1185+
  • · MLB TBF Keuchel 4937, Teheran 4906

They also had very similar 2013 seasons. Julio had a superb 2016, but overall Keuchel produced superior results against stiffer competition, much of it as his team battled for a championship.

A couple of tables follow for those who find the actual numbers interesting. If you are not one of those, feel free to skip ahead.

  Keuchel   Teheran Keuchel   Teheran
Year fWAR Rank # on list fWAR Rank PWARP Rank # on list PWARP Rank
2014 3.6 19 87 3.2 24 4.06 25 127 3.61 37
2015 5.9 6 77 1.1 T-68 5.84 11 114 0.06 395
2016 2.6 T-40 71 3.2 T-22 3.85 29 111 4.48 21
2017 2.4 46 87 1.1 75 3.14 33 109 1.07 159
2018 3.6 19 56 0.7 55 3.41 30 108 2.53 52
  Keuchel # On Teheran Keuchel # On Teheran
Year ERA Rank  list ERA Rank SIERA Rank  list SIERA Rank
2014 2.92 19 87 2.89 18 3.11 14 87 3.68 39
2015 2.48 5 77 4.04 54 2.84 6 77 4.24 61
2016 4.55 55 71 3.21 18 3.77 18 71 3.93 26
2017 2.90 T-9 87 4.49 62 3.61 16 87 4.89 73
2018 3.74 28 56 3.94 35 4.15 33 56 4.57 51
  Keuchel 125 IP Teheran
Year DRA Rank # on list DRA Rank
2014 3.18 32 127 3.51 45
2015 2.87 8 114 5.05 89
2016 3.36 24 111 3.28 19
2017 3.64 24 109 5.07 76
2018 3.87 43 108 4.06 52

Table Notes:

  • ERA and SIERA from Fangraphs; PWARP and DRA from Baseball Prospectus
  • Lists are relative to the number of players on I included that number as well.
  • In 2016 Keuchel pitched only 168+ innings. For that year I expanded to search list to 140 IP

Today’s Dallas Keuchel resembles Tom Glavine more than Julio Teheran or any of today’s hard throwers. He’s smart, puts the ball where he wants it, and while any pitcher can blow out his arm, I expect him to stay healthy and be effective for four years, perhaps more.

MLBTR projected a four-year, $82M contract form Keuchel and the Braves would lose their 2nd round pick (3rd overall) next year. The lost draft pick affects future farm system strength because of the penalties the Atlanta Braves face over the next few years.

The farm system also faces holes in critical areas if the Braves trade prospects to get a pitcher, but such trades would be excess capacity. I expect him to age well and be a superb mentor for young pitchers.

With Paxton gone and the prospect costs suggested in trades, I’d be happy to sign Keuchel to a four years deal. That leaves prospect capital in place to acquire a corner outfield piece and a controllable reliever like Kirby Yates or Will Smith to bolster the pen.

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